摘要
文章利用生命力模型分解内生预期寿命和外生损失寿命,考察了中国各地区2010年成年人口预期寿命差异及其影响因素。结果表明,中国各地区成年人口预期寿命存在显著差异,东、中、西部地区人口预期寿命梯度递减。男性内生预期寿命东西部差距较大,女性的外生损失寿命差异更明显。预期寿命相近地区的死亡模式也可能存在较大差异。居民的平均受教育程度和平均气温是对内生预期寿命影响最显著的指标,而其他经济发展因素和极端气温条件主要影响外生损失寿命。pm2.5浓度会显著影响外生损失寿命,但它对成年人口整体预期寿命的影响因选择性生存的作用而被削弱。对分地区死亡模式和影响机制差异的研究有助于提升不同地区健康政策的针对性和有效性。
Utilizing the vitality model as well as its intrinsic and extrinsic life expectancy decomposition, this paper explores the regional difference in China’s adult life expectancy and its impact factors. It finds that there are significant differences in the adult life expectancy among different regions, showing a decreasing gradient from the east, to the middle, then to the west. The primary difference between the east and west male adult life expectancy lies in the intrinsic life expectancy, while the difference of extrinsic life expectancy loss in females is more prominent. Even for regions with similar life expectancy,their underlying mortality patterns can be quite different. The average education level and the average temperature are the most significant factors affecting the intrinsic life expectancy. Other economic development factors and extreme temperature conditions mainly affect extrinsic life expectancy loss. The pm2.5 concentration significantly affects extrinsic life expectancy loss, but its effect on the overall adult life expectancy is weakened due to selective survival. Understanding the patterns behind the life expectancy and their influencing mechanisms could improve the pertinence and effectiveness of health policies for different regions.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期102-113,128,共13页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目“特征、规律与前景——老龄社会的人口学基础研究(编号:71490731)的阶段性成果
