摘要
城市轨道交通因其自身建设期长、造价高、不确定风险大等特点,使得其特许期的确定至关重要。通过文献阅读及前人经验对影响城市轨道交通PPP项目特许期因素进行识别,利用系统动力学软件,建立城市轨道交通PPP项目特许期模型,并对关键因素物业收入、年交通量、年运营成本和机动车数量进行敏感性分析,得到城市轨道交通PPP项目特许期的变动情况,确定不同影响因素对特许期的影响情况。研究结论可为城市轨道交通PPP项目特许期的制定提供参考。
Urban rail transit has been featured with long construction period,high cost and large risk of uncertainty. Therefore,the determination of its concession period is crucial. Through literature review and experience of professionals,the factors influencing the concession period of PPP projects in urban rail transit are identified,and the model of concession period of PPP projects in urban rail transit is established by using system dynamics. A sensitivity analysis of key factors such as property income,annual traffic volume,annual operating cost,and number of motor vehicles is conducted to obtain the change of the concession period of urban rail transit PPP projects,and determine the impact of different influencing factors on the concession period. The research conclusions can provide references for identifying the concession period of the urban rail transit PPP projects.
作者
谢婷
刘景矿
庞永师
XIE Ting;LIU Jing-kuang;PANG Yong-shi(School of Business Administration, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China)
出处
《工程管理学报》
2019年第3期69-74,共6页
Journal of Engineering Management
