摘要
本文在已有研究(李连友和张曦,2012)基础上,继续以国内外原有的14家较有影响的机构为样本,先是通过采用描述统计分析方法,对这些机构关于2011 2015年间中国 G D P增长速度预测的准确性进行了简要评述;而后利用灰色关联分析方法,对 1 4家机构五年的总体预测结果准确性进行了排序,并与这些机构关于中国2006 2010年间经济预测准确性进行对比分析。研究结果表明,这些机构对2011 2015年中国经济预测所表现出的特征为:首先,五年间各机构预测准确性最高的是联合国,最差的是北京大学国家发展研究院宋国青教授,其余为较高或一般;其次,各机构预测值呈正态分布,且集中趋势越来越明显。各机构对中国2011 2015年经济预测与2006 2010年相比,也表现出许多不同的特征,主要包括:第一,各机构经济预测的准确性排名情况发生了很大变动;第二,各机构的预测准确性在不断提升,预测误差有逐年缩小的趋势;第三,有些机构中由个人预测的误差偏大,而由机构组织预测的误差偏小;第四,国内机构的预测误差偏大,而国外机构的预测误差偏小。
Based on the existing research ( Li and Zhang,2012 ), this paper continues to use the 14 influential institutions at home and abroad as samples, first by using descriptive statistical analysis methods for these institutions on 2011 - 2015. A brief review of the accuracy of China ’ s GDP growth rate forecast;and then using the gray correlation analysis method to rank the accuracy of the overall forecast results of the four institutions for five years, and with these institutions on the accuracy of China ’ s economic forecast between 2006 and 2010 conduct a comparative analysis. The results of the study show that the characteristics of these institutions for China5 s economic forecast for 2011 - 2015 are : First, the highest accuracy of the agencies in the five years is the United Nations,the worst is Professor Song Guoqing from the National Development Institute of Peking University, and the rest is higher or average;second, the forecasted values of each institution are normally distributed, and the concentration trend is more and more obvious. Compared with 2006 - 2010 , the economic indicators of China' s 2011 - 2015 show many different characteristics,including: First,the accuracy ranking of economic forecasts of various institutions has changed a lot;second,the forecast accuracy of each institution is constantly increasing, and the forecast error is decreasing year by year;third, in some organizations, the forecast error forecasted by individuals is too large,and the forecast error forecasted by institutions is too small;fourth,the forecast error of the domestic institutions is too large, and the forecast error of foreign institutions is too small.
作者
李连友
李帆
Li Lianyou;Li Fan
出处
《宏观经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期45-57,共13页
Macroeconomics
关键词
经济预测
准确性评析
灰色关联度
预测误差
Economic forecast
Accuracy analysis
Grey correlation degree
Forecast error
