摘要
基于联合国统计署COMTRADE相关数据,采用修正恒定市场份额模型对2003~2017年美国出口贸易波动特征及影响因素进行测算,研究发现美国出口贸易市场规模效应最大,贸易保护政策将恶化美国出口形势;结构效应对美国出口波动影响不大,但市场分布效应在不断优化,这主要得益于中国、印度、新加坡、墨西哥等新兴经济体对美国商品进口的增长,这些增长的分布效应盈余超越了加拿大、法国、德国等传统主要市场的分布效应盈余负值;机械及运输设备、化学产品等技术密集型产品竞争力效应对美国出口竞争力产生巨大负面影响,但页岩气革命导致美国石油、天然气等能源产品竞争力的正面贡献效应较大。文章提出加强对美国出口贸易政策及竞争力演变监测,利用国际规则维护自身利益,主动扩大对美进口产品类别范围与规模,延伸贸易合作平台,深化推进“一带一路”倡议等对策措施。
The fluctuation characteristics and the influencing factors of United States'exports,from 2003 to 2017,are calculated based on UN COMTRADE data and CMS model.The conclusions are that the market scale effect is the biggest factor influencing US exports,and the trade pro tection policy will worsen the situation.The structure effect on exports is not big.The effects of market distribution are continuously optimizing,which is due to the import growth of US goods by China,India,Singapore,Mexico and other emerging economies.The distribution effect of such gro wth has surpassed the negative effect by the traditional major markets such as Canada,France,Germany.The competitiveness effects of technology-in tensive products,such as machinery and transport equipment,chemical products,have great negative effects on US export competitiveness.The com petitiveness of oil and natural gas has given a positive contribution to US export because of the shale gas revolution.The countermeasures are suggest ed in this paper:monitor the trade policy and the competitiveness evolution of the US;safeguard China's interests by using international rules;actively expand the sphere and scale of import products;extend the trade cooperation platform;deepen the strategy of The Belt and Road Initiative.
作者
曹旭平
朱福兴
Cao Xuping;Zhu Fuxing(School of Economics and Management,Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu 215500,China;Business School,Soochow University,Suzhou 215021,China)
出处
《当代经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第8期49-56,共8页
Contemporary Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目《基于内部资本市场分部相关性的地方国资平台整合效率及其对策研究》(17BJY031)
江苏省高等教育教改研究重点课题《“一带一路”视域下地方高校应用型国际人才培养模式研究与实践》(2017JSJG050)
