摘要
基于2017年秋季自动站观测资料,对天津一体化综合气象业务平台在宁河区7个代表站的逐时气温、相对湿度、风向、风速等要素的格点预报质量进行了检验评估,结果表明:一体化平台格点预报与实况有一致的变化趋势,但对各要素的预报性能存在差异;在秋季气温的预报整体偏低,尤其是在日出到午后时段;相对湿度在下午段的预报值与实况最接近,准确率可达到80%~90%;风速的预报总体比实况偏高1~2 m/s。对宁河区东部到南部地区的预报性能相对较好,而对西部到北部地区的预报性能相对较差。总体上一体化平台预报准确率较高,可为预报员进行本区要素预报提供很好的参考。
Based on the observation data of automatic weather stations in autumn of 2017, the quality of grid prediction of hourly temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and wind speed at 7 representative stations in Ninghe District forecasted by Tianjin Multiple Meteorological Operational Platform(TIPTOP) was examined and evaluated. The results show that the grid prediction of TIPTOP has the same trend with the actual situation, but the forecast performance of each element is different. The temperature forecasted by TIPTOP is often lower than the actual temperature in autumn, especially during the sunrise to the afternoon. The forecast of relative humidity during afternoon is the closest to the actual situation with the accurate rate between 80% and 90%. The forecast of wind speed is 1 to 2 m/s higher than the actual situation. The forecast performance is relatively good for the eastern to southern areas of Ninghe District, while that for the western to northern areas is relatively poor. TIPTOP has a high prediction accuracy, which can provide a good reference for forecasters to carry out meteorological forecast in Ninghe District.
作者
李静楠
张春同
LI Jingnan;ZHANG Chuntong(Tianjin Ninghe Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 301500,China;Chengdu Meteorological Bureau,Chengdu 611130,Sichuan Province,China)
出处
《天津科技》
2019年第6期89-93,共5页
Tianjin Science & Technology
关键词
数值模式
气象要素
精细化预报
宁河地区
检验评估
numerical model
meteorological elements
refined forecasting
Ninghe area
inspection and evaluation
