摘要
为研究长江上游流域高精度的短期降水模拟和预报,优选适宜于流域的WRF模式参数化方案组合,构建了模式中不同微物理过程、陆面过程和积云参数化方案组合,建立了包含平均绝对误差、布莱尔评分、TS评分和合格率多个指标的定量综合评价体系,提出了基于TOPSIS多属性决策的最优参数化方案优选方法,并在长江上游流域选取了4场典型强降雨过程进行模拟分析。研究结果表明:在长江上游流域采用微物理过程WSM3方案、陆面过程Noah方案、积云参数KF方案条件下,WRF模拟降水与实测降水的空间分布和降水量级更为相符。
In order to study high-accuracy short-term rainfall simulation and forecast and select applicable parameterization scheme combinations of WRF in upper Yangtze River Basin, different combinations of microphysics process, land surface process and cumulus parameterization schemes in WRF model were constructed. A quantitative comprehensive evaluation system including average absolute error,Blair score,TS score and pass rate was constructed,and an optimal parameterization scheme optimization method based on TOPSIS multi-attribute decision-making was proposed. Four typical heavy rainfall processes in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River were selected for simulation and analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution and order of precipitation simulated by WRF are more consistent with the measured precipitation by using microphysical process WSM3 scheme, land surface process Noah scheme and cumulus parameter KF scheme in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.
作者
周倩
周建中
孙娜
曾小凡
ZHOU Qian;ZHOU Jianzhong;SUN Na;ZENG Xiaofan(School of Hydropower and Information Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2019年第6期76-81,共6页
Yangtze River
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51579107)
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点项目(91547208)
