摘要
2018年,在非洲猪瘟疫情和中美贸易摩擦的影响下,中国猪肉产量和进出口量均有所下降,国内总供给减少,与此同时中国从世界市场采购猪肉的格局也发生了变化。2018年,猪肉价格呈现“上半年下降、下半年回升”的波动趋势,但全年平均价格同比下降明显。短期看,非洲猪瘟疫情的影响仍将持续,生猪产能下降将导致猪肉供给减少、猪肉价格大幅上升,国内外猪肉价差扩大导致猪肉进口小幅增长。中长期看,随着养猪效益的提升,猪肉供给将逐步回升,市场价格将趋于平稳,猪肉贸易将主要满足多元化的消费需求,进口量保持稳中略增态势。
In 2018,under the influence of African swine fever epidemic and Sino-US trade friction,the production and import and export of pork in China decreased,and the total domestic supply decreased,at the same time,the purchasing pattern of pork for China from the world market already changed.In 2018,pork price showed a fluctuating trend of"decline in the first half of the year and recovery in the second half",but the annual average price dropped significantly compared to 2017.In the short term,the impact of the African swine fever epidemic will continue,and the decrease of pig production capacity will lead to the decrease of pork supply and the sharp rise of pork price.And the widening price gap between domestic and foreign pork will lead to a small increase in pork imports.In the medium and long term,with the improvement of pig raising efficiency,the supply of pork will gradually pick up,the market price will tend to be stable,the trade will mainly meet the demand of diversified consumption and the import volume will be stable with slight growth.
作者
韩磊
Han Lei(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732)
出处
《农业展望》
2019年第5期4-7,13,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(14CJY051)
关键词
猪肉
供给
消费
市场价格
非洲猪瘟疫情
中美贸易摩擦
pork
supply
consumption
market price
African swine fever epidemic
Sino-US trade friction
