摘要
分析了2018年上半年中国猪肉供应、消费和贸易情况以及对市场的影响,进而总结归纳了生猪产品市场价格走势的特点和影响因素。2018年上半年猪肉供应总体呈现阶段性供给过剩,生猪价格春节后开始持续、快速下跌。受上半年落后产能母猪大量淘汰影响, 3季度猪肉供应过剩局面将会明显改善,猪价将会季节性回升,但供给充裕以及冻品高库存抑制了回升空间,国庆以后猪价会有季节性下跌,全年生猪养殖保持微利。此外, 8月由东北地区向华东地区点式暴发的非洲猪瘟短期内造成生猪流通受阻、猪肉消费受冲击、猪价涨跌互现,疫情控制将会影响2018年4季度和2019年猪价是否提前出现拐点。
The supply, consumption and trade of pork in China in the first half of 2018 and their impacts on the market were analyzed, and then the characteristics and influencing factors of the market price trends of pig products were summarized. In the first half of 2018, the supply of pork was on the whole stage of excess supply and pig prices began to continue and fall rapidly after the Spring Festival. Affected by the large number of backward production capacity breeding sows eliminated, oversupply of pork will be improved significantly in the third quarter, and the price of pork will rise seasonally. But the sufficient supply of pork and high inventory of frozen pork will inhibit the increasing space of pig price. After the National Day, the pig price will fall seasonally. The pig farming will maintain a slight profit in 2018. In addition, Africa Swine Fever（ASF） has been found from the Northeast of China to East China in August, which resulted in the stop of live pig transportation across the province, the cutback of pork and the pig price decreasing in the main producing areas while arising in the main consumption areas, and the control efficiency of ASF would determine the turn point of pig price in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2019.
作者
朱增勇
杨瑢
张学彪
Zhu Zengyong;Yang Rong;Zhang Xuebiao(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology,Ministry of Agricultur;Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 10008;2.Husbandry Station of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350001,Fujia)
出处
《农业展望》
2018年第8期4-8,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII-01)
关键词
猪肉
供给
消费
价格
展望
pork
supply
consumption
price
outlook
