摘要
本文综合评估了2005—2016年中国大陆30个省区的碳减排成效,在此基础上识别出减排“后进地区”,并借助脱钩模型和影子价格模型对其进行减排路径的调整与优化。研究结果表明:(1)大多数地区已提前实现或有潜力实现2020年和2030年碳减排目标,但同时也存在山西、内蒙古、海南等9个减排“后进地区”,主要分布于我国中部和西部;(2)减排“后进地区”碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩关系表现出了“以强弱脱钩为主”“前期多种脱钩类型并存但后期以强弱脱钩为主”以及“整个考察期内多种脱钩类型并存”等不同形态,反映出不同类型地区碳排放与经济增长的关系存在明显差异;(3)遵循可行性与公平性原则,科学调整了各“后进地区”的碳减排目标并优化了其实践路径。研究结果能够为切实践行绿色发展理念、不断完善碳减排策略提供数据支撑与理论依据。
The paper comprehensively evaluates the carbon emission reduction in China and its 30 provinces.On this basis,the“backward regions”of emission reduction are accurately identified and their emission reduction paths are adjusted and optimized by means of decoupling model and shadow price model.The results show that:By 2016,China has already achieved the 2020 carbon emission reduction target promised by the government ahead of schedule.If the current rate is maintained,China should be able to achieve the 2030 carbon emission reduction target ahead of schedule.However,there are obvious differences in specific provinces.Among them,judging from the achievement of the carbon emission reduction target in 2020,15 places such as Beijing,Tianjin and Jilin have been fully realized,and 3 places such as Anhui will soon be realized.Further analysis on the achievement of 2030 carbon emission reduction targets in 18 regions shows that except Guangxi and Shandong,the other 16 regions have the ability to complete the expected emission reduction targets ahead of schedule or on time.However,the remaining 14 provinces represented by Hainan and Hebei will face certain challenges in future emission reduction work,which are potential“backward areas”for emission reduction.Through systematic screening,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Hainan,Guizhou,Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang are identified as“backward areas”for emission reduction.From the perspective of geographical distribution,the western provinces are the main ones.In order to better optimize the path of emission reduction,the relationship between their carbon emissions and economic development is discussed.It is found that their decoupling types show certain differences.Among them,Shanxi and Guizhou are in the same category,basically consisting of weak decoupling and strong decoupling.Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia belong to the second category,with multiple decoupling types coexisting in the early stage of expansion negative decoupling,expansion connection a
作者
田云
陈池波
TIAN Yun;CHEN Chi-bo(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,Hubei,430073,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期22-37,共16页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“气候变化背景下的中国低碳农业发展水平测度及提升策略研究”(16YJC790092)
湖北省软科学面上研究项目“绿色发展理念下湖北农业低碳生产技术应用的激励机制研究”(2018ADC055)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“农业规模经营主体低碳生产行为的诱发机理与激励政策研究:以种粮大户为例”(2722019PY019)
关键词
巴黎协定
碳排放
碳减排
成效评估
路径优化
paris agreement
carbon emissions
carbon emission reduction
effectiveness evaluation
path optimization
