摘要
目的研究陕西省2004-2017年细菌性痢疾流行病学变化特征,为制定肠道传染病防控重点提供参考依据。方法对2004-2017年陕西省细菌性痢疾报告病例进行三间分布分析,利用圆形分布法分析季节流行特征,利用GIS地理信息系统展现菌痢在陕西省地理分布特征,利用SaTscan9.05进行时空扫描,探测时空发病聚集簇,利用OpenGeoDa1.2.0进行局部空间自相关分析,探测疫情聚集重点区域。结果陕西省2004-2017年细菌性痢疾平均发病率为32.64/10万,最高为2004年(86.47/10万),最低为2017年(11.31/10万);集中度M值为0.4700,发病具有一定的季节性;圆形分布分析高峰日为7月31日,高峰期5月19日-10月12日;时空扫描探测到5个聚集簇;局部空间自相关分析显示高-高聚集区域位于关中地区的西安、咸阳市,并向陕南地区转移,低-低聚类区域多位于陕南地区;人群性别比为1.29,以农民28.63%、散居儿童20.90%、学生20.13%为主。结论陕西省2004-2017年细菌性痢疾呈现逐年下降趋势,高发地区由关中地区逐渐转移至陕南地区,季节性逐渐趋于不明显,时空聚集也在减少,发病以男性儿童、学生及农民居多。
Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics of bacterial dysentery in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2017,and to provide a reference for the prevention and control of intestinal infectious diseases.Methods The seasonal distribution epidemiological characteristics of bacterial dysentery during 2004-2017 in Shaanxi Province were analyzed by circular distribution method.The bacillary dysentery incidence data in Shaanxi Province was analyzed by space-time scan statistics using SatScan9.05 software.The results were visualized using GIS software.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using OpenGeoDa1.2.0 to detect key areas of epidemic clustering.Results The average incidence rate of bacterial dysentery in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2017 was 32.64/l00 000,the highest was in 2004(86.47/100 000),the lowest was in 2017(11.31/100 000).The peak day for the analysis of circular distribution was July 31,the peak period was from May 19 to October 12.5 clusters were detected by spatio-temporal scanning.The correlation analysis showed that the high-high clustering areas were located in Xi’an and Xianyang of Guanzhong area,and shifted to south of Shaanxi.The low-low clustering areas were mostly located in south and of shaanxi.The population sex ratio was 1.29,with farmers(28.63%),children(20.90%)and students(20.13%)were the the major infected population.Conclusion The bacterial dysentery of Shaanxi province from 2004 to 2017 is decreasing year by year.The high incidence area has been gradually transferred from Guanzhong area to south of Shaanxi.The seasonal characteristics and the space-time scan clusters are gradually not obvious.Male children,students and farmers are the major infected population.
作者
刘东立
邱琳
石一
马琳
张铮
曹磊
Liu Dongli;Qiu Lin;Shi Yi(Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Contrl and Prevention(710054),Xi’an)
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期176-180,共5页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
陕西省科技资源共享平台项目(2016FWPT-12)
关键词
细菌性痢疾
圆形分布法
时空分布
局部空间自相关分析
Bacterial dysentery
Circular distribution method
Spatial and temporal distribution
Local spatial autocorrelation analysis
