摘要
"旅游发展促进经济增长假说"(TLGH)在强调旅游业对地区"经济提速"的同时,较少关注其对"经济提质"的影响,同时也忽略了旅游经济依赖面临的潜在风险。本文使用2002年—2014年城市层面数据,根据城市规模与旅游产业依赖度两个维度,从全国地级及以上城市中筛选出30个经济对旅游业产生较高依赖的城市作为研究样本。本文借鉴"资源诅咒"理论分析框架,使用计量经济学方法,从经济增长质量的角度研究了旅游业"资源诅咒"效应的存在性及其影响机制,研究结果表明:(1)在中小型旅游依赖型城市中,旅游产业依赖度与城市TFP增长表现出明显的N型曲线关系,即旅游产业依赖可能会对城市TFP增长产生先促进、后抑制、再促进的效应。(2)旅游产业依赖会通过制造业发展和对外开放程度这两个因素对TFP增长产生间接影响。其中,"荷兰病"效应是旅游业产生"资源诅咒"效应的重要原因,而提高地区对外开放水平是规避旅游业"资源诅咒"效应的关键因素。本文认为今后应加大对旅游与经济深层次作用机制的分析,研究重点要从"能否促进"向"如何促进"转变。
While stressing the economy speeding effect of tourism industry,the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis(TLGH) has been little concerned about the economical upgrading effect of tourism and,at the same time,has ignored the potential risks that tourism dependence faces.This paper used the city-level data from 2002 to 2014,made scale and degree of dependence as two dimensions,sampled 30 cities whose tourism has the highest dependence on economy,borrowed the framework of "resources curse" theory,applied econometric method to study the beingness and influence mechanism of the "resources curse" effect of tourism from economic growth quality perspective.The findings are:(1) The small and medium tourism-led cities show an obvious N-curve relation between the degree of tourism dependence and the TFP growth.It means that the degree of tourism dependence may have an first-boost-then-restrain-and-re-boost effect on their TFP growth;(2) the dependence degree of tourism may have indirect influence on the growth of TFP through the level of manufacture development and open door policies of the cities,among which the Dutch Disease effect is found to be a main cause of the "resources curse" effect of tourism,and to enhance the level of their open door policies is a key factor for them to avoid "resources curse" effect.The authors believe that future studies should increase the analysis of the in-depth action mechanism of economy on tourism,and the focus should be shifted to "how to promote" from "Can it promote?" mode.
作者
邓涛涛
刘璧如
马木兰
DENG Taotao;LIU Biru;MA Mulan(School of Urban and Regional Science,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Tourism and Event Management,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期1-17,共17页
Tourism Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于演化经济地理学视角的旅游地发展演化过程与机制研究——以江南六大古镇为例”(41401145)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“高速铁路对城市群产业发展的影响机理及其效应研究:以长三角城市群为例”(17YJC790021)
关键词
旅游业
资源依赖
全要素生产率
荷兰病
tourism industry
resources dependence
total factor productivity
the Dutch Disease
