摘要
灰色系统理论是解决客观世界信息不确定性问题的方法,而灰色系统建模是灰色系统理论的重要组成部分,其思想是直接将时间序列转化为微分方程,从而建立起抽象系统发展的动态模型。该项目运用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,通过构建与旅游业相关联的河南省星级饭店个数、客运量、农村居民家庭人均收入等相关指标,根据各个指标的原始数据按照灰色关联度计算的步骤进行计算,并将其应用于河南省旅游业发展中。结果表明,对河南省旅游业影响较大的因素主要是社会消费品零售总额、河南省在职人员平均工资和人均国内生产总值。灰色预测模型能够合理科学地对河南省旅游业发展进行预测。
Grey system theory is a method to solve the problem of information uncertainty in the objective world.Gray system modeling is an important part of the grey system theory.The idea of gray system modeling is to directly convert time series into differential equations in order to establish a dynamic model of the development of abstract systems.The grey system theory grey correlation analysis method was used to build some other related indicators,such as tourism-related star-rated hotels in Henan Province, passenger traffic,per capita income of rural households and so on.According to the steps of the calculation of the grey data of the raw data of each indicator.The results show that the major factors which have a significant impact on the tourism industry in Henan Province are the total retail sales of consumer goods, the average wage of employees in Henan Province and the per capita GDP.Furthermore,the prediction model can predict the tourism development of HeNan province reasonably and scientifically.
作者
刘慧香
杨晓磊
徐青
张欣
韩阳
LIU Hui-xiang;YANG Xiao-lei;XU Qing;ZHANG Xin;HAN Yang(College of Science North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210,China;Department of Discipline Construction North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210,China)
出处
《华北理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2019年第2期112-117,共6页
Journal of North China University of Science and Technology：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(51474089
51504080)
河北省教育厅自然科学基金(QN2016088)
华北理工大学研究生教育教学改革重点项目(P1601
Z1901)
河北省留学回国人员科技活动资助项目(C2015005014)
