摘要
全自动驾驶已经成为城市轨道交通建设发展的必然趋势,车辆火灾场景是影响列车全自动运行安全最大的场景之一,因此制定合理的火灾调度安全控制方案具有极其重要的意义。以地铁全自动驾驶中车辆火灾场景为研究对象,将系统动力学理论方法用于构建调度安全影响因子模型。与传统的地铁安全模型不同,该模型以全自动驾驶场景为标准形成影响因子库。通过德菲尔法相关思想的专家评分法确定各子系统权重比,利用Vensim-PLE软件对模型进行仿真试验,对各影响因子进行动态预测,对比不同的安全投入方案及调度人员配置比方案,优选出最有效的火灾调度安全控制方案。
This paper intends to build up a dispatcher safety model for the vehicle fire scene based on the Fully Automatic Operation(FAO)system with the theoretical method of the System Dynamics(SD).As compared with the traditional subway safety model,the novel model we have created can be said with some more new featuring factors based on the FAO system so as for it to formulate a comprehensive dispatching safety assessment system for the subway fire scenes consisting of 5 kinds of factors:the passenger factor,the environment factor,the signal and communication factor,the equipment factor and that of management.Based on the dispatching safety assessment system,it is necessary to build up 5 subsystem models with the rate-variable fundamental in-tree method.Then,we have adopted the inlay operation method to join the above mentioned 5 subsystems to obtain the entire system flow graphic which may include lots of feedback loops between the safety investment level and the dispatching safety level of the fire scenarios so as to represent the mutual relationships of all the involved factors by the system dynamics equations.Moreover,we have also calculated and determined the weight coefficients of all the subsystems based on the expertise scoring as combined with the Delphi Technique so as to make the results more objective.And,finally,the model we have gained has been simulated by the Vensim-PLE and assessed by the velocity rate so as to reach the target safety level.And,finally,the results of our assessment show that the safety level of the entire system proves to be increasing at a declining rate for the first 2 months,and then remains at the same efficiency during the intermediate 4 months and then turns to increase during the last 4 months,which can be said approximately to the target level.It can be found that the safety levels of the passenger subsystem and that of the environment subsystem may tend to be decreasing over time,whereas the safety levels of the other 3 subsystems may increase over time.Therefore,through the co
作者
贺德强
胡颖
路向阳
HE De-qiang;HU Ying;LU Xiang-yang(College of Mechanical Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co.,Ltd.,Zhuzhou 412001,Hunan,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期35-43,共9页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51765006)
广西科技攻关项目(桂科攻1598009-6
桂科AB17195046)
关键词
安全系统学
系统动力学
全自动驾驶
场景
车辆火灾
调度
safety system
system dynamics
fully automatic operation
scene
vehicle fire
dispatcher
