摘要
病死猪、瘦肉精等肉类食品安全事件时有发生,已成为影响肉类产品价格波动的重要外因之一。基于生猪食品安全事件、猪肉和鸡肉价格数据,采用平滑转换自回归模型和事件分析法,分析国内生猪食品安全事件对畜禽产品价格异常波动的影响过程,探讨其产生差异的原因。结果表明,食品安全事件发生前,猪肉价格和鸡肉价格表现出明显的对称性,呈现出"此消彼长"的特点;食品安全事件的发生对畜禽产品价格的负向影响呈现"V"型态势;食品安全事件发生后,猪肉市场逐渐恢复至正常水平,而鸡肉价格受到的负向影响持续时间较长,且更为复杂,引发了剧烈的波动。食品安全事件发生当月,猪肉价格受到消费恐慌和信任危机的影响,短期内出现需求萎靡,而鸡肉市场因过度估计鸡肉替代猪肉而增加市场供给,导致供过于求,价格下跌;食品安全事件发生后,猪肉价格受政府宏观调控影响,短期内保障了生猪市场价格的稳定性,鸡肉市场依靠自身市场调控恢复至正常水平。因此,为缓解生猪食品安全事件对畜禽产品市场价格异常波动的影响,提出建立食品安全信息网络平台,避免消费恐慌和信任危机;及时发布畜禽市场供给和交易量,引导畜禽产品有效供给;营造良好的市场运营环境,发挥畜禽产品自我调节功能的政策建议。
Food safety incidents such as sick and dead pigs and clenbuterol additive have occurred from time to time and have become one of the important external factors influencing the price fluctuations of meat products. Based on the data of pig food safety incidents and the prices of pork and chicken, and applying the smooth transformation autoregressive model and event study method, this paper analyzed the impact process of domestic pig food safety incidents on the abnormal price fluctuations of livestock and poultry products and explored the reasons for the differences. Results show that before the food safety incidents, the prices of pork and chicken showed a clear symmetry:complementing each other. The negative impact of the food safety incidents on the prices of livestock and poultry products presents a "V" shape. After the food safety incidents, the pork market gradually returned to the normal level, the negative impact on chicken prices has been longer and more complex, leading to wild swings. In the month following the food safety incidents, pork prices were affected by consumption panics and trust crisis, resulting in sluggish demand in the short term, while the chicken market increased the market supply due to over-estimation of the replacement of pork by chicken, resulting in oversupply and falling prices. After the food safety incidents, the pork price was affected by the government’s macro-control, which ensured the stability of the pig market price in the short term, and the chicken market recovered to the normal level by its own market control. Therefore, in order to alleviate the impacts of pig food safety incidents on the abnormal price fluctuations of livestock and poultry products, this paper suggests: to establish a food safety information network platform to avoid consumption panics and trust crisis, to release market supply and transaction volume of livestock and poultry products in time to guide the effective supply of livestock and poultry products, and to create a good market operating environ
作者
周锦
许月艳
李崇光
ZHOU Jin;XU Yue-yan;LI Chong-guang(College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei 430070, China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期282-289,共8页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71673103
71503093)~~
