摘要
现有国际关系理论阐述了安全利益与价值观念对联盟形成的作用,但并未充分解释上述因素的交互作用对双边不对称联盟形成的影响。大国—小国的"功能分异"是解释双边不对称联盟形成的必要条件。大国使用武力为小国提供安全保障,小国对大国提供战略资源影响大国之间的权力投射。战略资源包括人口、领土和物资。若大国和小国形成共同预期——小国将对大国排他性地提供战略资源,则大国和小国成功结盟;反之,大国和小国不结盟或结盟失败。依据德国、意大利、苏联、波兰和匈牙利的档案,1919—1941年英国、法国、德国和苏联结盟的实践检验了现有理论对结盟成败的解释。德国与东欧、北欧国家结盟的实践检验了"功能分异"对结盟成败的影响。1938—1941年,德国要求波兰、匈牙利、保加利亚、南斯拉夫和芬兰对德国割让领土或提供军队过境权,垄断罗马尼亚和保加利亚的对外贸易,并增加罗马尼亚、南斯拉夫和芬兰对德国的矿产出口。匈牙利、罗马尼亚、保加利亚和芬兰答应了德国的要求,德国与它们结盟成功;波兰和南斯拉夫拒绝了德国的要求,德国与两国结盟失败。根据"功能分异"理论推断,今后一段时间里美国在中国周边成功拓展盟友的可能性不高。
Existing IR theories identify common security interests and ideological affinity as driving forces of alliance formation, but do not sufficiently explain how interactions of these two variables affect asymmetric alliance formation. Based upon these theories, I argue that “functional division” is a necessary condition of asymmetric alliance formation. A great power s military force guarantees the security of a small allied power, while a small power s strategic resources affect the patron s power projection. If the great power and the small power share the above understanding, they will successfully become allied partners. Otherwise, the great power and the small power are unlikely to form the proposed alliance. Based upon German, Italian, Soviet, Polish and Hungarian archival sources, I examine how common security interests and ideological affinity affected British, French, German and Soviet alliance formation attempts between 1919 and 1941;and how functional division affected German alliance formations with Eastern European powers between 1938 and 1941. Germany presented territorial demands to and/or sought troop-passage concessions from Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Finland, attempted to monopolize Romanian and Bulgarian foreign trade, and sought greater German share of resource exports of Romania, Yugoslavia, and Finland. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Finland accommodated Germany, and thus formed coalitions with the Germans. However, Poland and Yugoslavia rejected German demands, and thus, failed to make alignments with the Germans. The “functional division” theory predicts that the United States is unlikely to successfully form new alliances on China s periphery.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第2期101-122,158,159,共24页
World Economics and Politics
基金
清华大学自主科研计划"崛起国联盟策略有效性研究"(项目批准号:2016THZWJC10)资助
关键词
联盟
功能分异
战略资源
德国
第二次世界大战
alliance
functional division
strategic resources
Germany
World War II
