摘要
本文旨在研究两岸经贸合作与台湾地区经济增长的关系,以影响两岸经贸合作进程的《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》的签署和"反服贸"运动的爆发为切入点,从实证分析的角度分别考察促进或阻碍两岸和平发展对台湾经济的影响。本文使用1995-2016年跨经济体面板数据,利用合成控制法构建最优的比较对象,通过分析发现,积极开展两岸经贸合作使台湾地区实际人均GDP提高了10.2%,实际GDP提高7.14%。阻碍两岸合作的"反服贸"运动使得台湾经济发展明显放缓,GDP的人均水平和总量水平在两年内分别下降了1.6%和1.0%。研究表明,两岸和平发展关系着台湾地区的经济增长,任何阻碍两岸经贸合作的行为最终将使台湾地区的经济发展受到损害。
This paper aims to study the relationship between the cross-Strait economic and trade cooperation and Tai-wan economic growth. Based on the signing of “The Framework Agreement on the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation” and the outbreak of the "anti-service trade" movement” that affect the process of the cross-Strait economic and trade coopera-tion, we make a detailed examination of the impact of promoting and hindering the peaceful development between the two sides on Taiwan economy from the perspective of empirical analysis. On the other hand, by using both the panel data from 1995 to 2016 and the synthetic control method to construct the optimal comparative object, we find that the cross-Strait eco-nomic cooperation has increased the real per capita GDP of Taiwan by 10.2%, and the total real GDP by 7.14%. While the "anti-service trade" movement that hinders the cross-Strait cooperation has led to a significant slowdown in Taiwan econo-my, with per capital and total level falling by 1.6% and 1.0% respectively within two years. The findings show that the peaceful development of the cross-Strait economic and trade relations is of importance to the economic growth of Taiwan, and any actions that hinder the cross-Strait economic cooperation will ultimately damage the economic development of Tai-wan.
作者
张铭洪
卢雄标
张海峰
Zhang Minghong;Lu Xiongbiao;Zhang Haifeng
出处
《台湾研究集刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期55-67,共13页
Taiwan Research Journal
关键词
两岸经贸合作
台湾经济
合成控制法
the cross-Strait economic and trade cooperation
Taiwan economy
synthetic control method
