摘要
中国作为经济强国、人口大国,经济迅速发展的同时,也存在人口性别比例失调的问题.为探索经济与人口的关系,本文从性别比与第一产业产值出发,研究两者是否存在关系.基于我国1978—2016年的人口性别比和第一产业产值,利用非参数方法对人口性别比与第一产业产值进行了拟合,并对残差建立了滑动平均模型.结果表明所建的模型是合适的,证明了中国人口性别比与第一产业产值存在非线性关系.
As a country with strong economic development and large population,China is facing the problem of imbalance of population sex ratio while its economy is developing rapidly.In order to explore the relationship between economy and population,this paper discusses whether there is a relationship between the sex ratio and the output value of the primary industry.Based on the population sex ratio and the output value of the primary industry in China from 1978 to 2016,the non-parametric method is used to fit the relation between population sex ratio and the output value of the primary industry,and a moving average model for the residual error is established.The result shows that the proposed model is suitable and there is a nonlinear relationship between the sex ratio of population and the output value of the primary industry in China.
作者
黄剑沛
武新乾
桑艳艳
HUANG Jianpei;WU Xinqian;SANG Yanyan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471023,China)
出处
《南阳师范学院学报》
CAS
2019年第1期22-26,共5页
Journal of Nanyang Normal University
基金
河南省科技攻关项目(182102210286)
河南省高校省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201710464011)
河南科技大学大学生研究训练计划项目(2017154)
关键词
人口性别比
第一产业
非参数拟合
滑动平均模型
population sex ratio
primary industry
non-parametric fitting
moving average model
