摘要
构建基础养老金适度水平模型对湖北城乡居民基础养老金适度给付水平区间进行测算,其中适度下限的衡量标准是满足热量支出法测算出的城乡老年人维持生存所需的食品需求,适度上限的衡量标准是达到ELES模型测算出的城乡居民基本消费支出的一半,并依据相关消费指数对2016—2050年湖北城乡居民基础养老金适度给付水平区间进行预测。在此基础上,分阶段设计城乡居民基础养老金调整机制,并通过对湖北省城乡居民养老保险待遇领取人数和财政收入进行预测验证其可行性。分析发现,湖北城乡居民基础养老金适度给付水平较现有水平有较大提升;在该调整机制下,湖北城乡居民基础养老金给付水平呈现阶段性增长,并且湖北财政收入完全可以负担。
Under the background of the aging of the population, the improvement of the basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents is particularly important,and the core of the system is to raise the level of the basic pension for urban and rural residents. In this regard, by using caloric expenditure method and ELES model, this paper constructs the appropriate level model of basic pension, and based on the relevant consumer index, forecasts the modest level of Hubei basic pension for urban and rural residents in 2016-2050. On this basis, the basic pension adjustment mechanism for urban and rural residents is designed in stages so that the basic pension in Hubei will develop in a healthy range towards a moderate level. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper makes the following recommendations: increasing Hubei′s fiscal revenue as a share of GDP, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure and increase subsidies for urban and rural residents′ endowment insurance, and adjusting the basic pension of urban and rural residents in Hubei with the adjusted adjustment mechanism.
作者
高萍
刘崇涛
GAO Ping;LIU Chongtao(School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan, Hubei 430070,China)
出处
《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》
2018年第12期53-59,共7页
Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition
关键词
基础养老金
ELES模型
适度水平
调整机制
财政负担
basic pension for urban and rural residents
ELES model
moderate level
adjustment mechanism
financial burden
