摘要
本研究运用西藏地区1996—2013年相关数据,分析不确定性、利率对西藏地区居民储蓄率的影响。研究结果表明:不确定性、利率对储蓄率有显著的单向因果关系,利率对储蓄率呈现负向关系,不确定性对储蓄率呈现正向关系。当储蓄率短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以-1.297的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回均衡状态。而储蓄率的预测值围绕其真实值上下轻微波动,且二者升降趋势基本一致,建议扩大西藏社保范围,稳定西藏居民不确定性感受。
By usingpanel data from 1996 to 2013 in Tibet,this paper analyzesthe impact of uncertainty and interest rates on the savings rate of Tibetan residents.The results show that there is a significant one-way causal relationship between uncertainty and interest rate,a negative relationship between interest rate and savings rate,and a positive relationship between uncertainty and savings rate.When the short-term fluctuations of the savings rate deviated from its long-term equilibrium,the unbalanced state will be pulled back to the equilibrium state with the adjustment strength of-1.297.At the same time,the predicted value of the savings rate fluctuates slightly around its true value,and the two trends are basically the same.Therefore,it is suggested to expand the social security coverage of Tibet and stabilize its the uncertainty of Tibetan residents.
作者
马喜立
Ma Xi-li(HuaXia Bank Postdoctoral Research Station,Beijing 100032;Tsinghua University Postdoctoral Research Station,Beijing 100084)
出处
《贵州商学院学报》
2018年第4期34-40,共7页
Journal of Guizhou University Of Commerce
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"中国房地产市场分化的成因及其与地方政府举债行为的联动效应研究"(71603051)
关键词
西藏地区
居民储蓄率
利率
不确定性
Tibet Area
Residents Savings Rate
Interest Rate
Residents Uncertainty
