摘要
农业机械化和劳动力转移对农民收入增长的作用机制及其因果关系一直是一个值得深入探讨的问题。本文基于2000～2015年的省级面板数据,构建中介效应检验模型,对三者之间的作用逻辑和因果关系进行实证分析。研究表明:机械化与劳动力转移均可显著地促进农民收入增长,其中,机械化既可以直接作用于农业收入增长,也可以通过劳动力转移"部分地"间接作用于非农收入增长;劳动力转移则直接作用于非农收入增长。本文认为,农业机械化和劳动力转移是建立农民增收长效机制的两大抓手,不可偏废;但在这一过程中,要注意处理好两者的关系和节奏,不可颠倒前后因果次序,否则可能发生对农业比较优势的偏离。
The mechanism and causal relationship between the agricultural mechanization and labor transfer,with their growth effects on the farmer's income,always have been a good topic of research and worthy of further exploration.Based on the provincial panel data of China's Mainland from2000to2015,this article constructs a mediating effects testing model to investigate the causal relationship between agricultural mechanization and labor transfer,and their mechanism of growth effects on farmer's income.The empirical results show that both agricultural mechanization and labor transfer can increase farmer's income significantly.Notably,on one side,the agricultural mechanization not only can increase farmer's agricultural income directly,but also can indirectly increase the non-farm income through the labor transfer partially.On the other side,the labor transfer can directly increase farmer's non-farm income.There exist significant mediating effects of labor transfer on agricultural mechanism,which helps to increase farmer's non-farm income.As regards policy implications,the agricultural mechanization and labor transfer are two principal channels that can increase farmer's income in the long run,and both of them should not be ignored in China.However,policymakers also need to pay more attention to their relationship in this process.For example,agricultural mechanism can facilitate labor transfer,and enhance agricultural productivity,but the contrary is not true,and labor transfer only can increase the non-farm income by itself.Therefore,the causal sequence between agricultural mechanism and labor transfer should be considered by agricultural policymakers,and their order should not be reversed.Otherwise,the agricultural comparative advantage may be deviated.
作者
李谷成
李烨阳
周晓时
Li Gucheng;Li Yeyang;Zhou Xiaoshi
出处
《中国农村经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期112-127,共16页
Chinese Rural Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"劳动力成本上升对农业生产的影响机理与实证研究"(项目编号:71473100)
国家自然科学基金项目"中国农业全要素生产率增长的微观基础及若干农业政策的生产率效应评估"(项目编号:71873050)
国家"万人计划"青年拔尖人才支持计划项目"有中国特色农业机械化模式研究"(项目编号:2015-48-2-50)的资助
关键词
农业机械化
劳动力转移
农民收入
中介效应
Agricultural Mechanization
Labor Transfer
Farmer's Income
Mediating Effect
