摘要
长期以来,国内外学界,尤其是西方研究中存在着一种危险话语和偏见,认为"后卡里莫夫时代"乌兹别克斯坦国会因政权交接发生暴乱,且会波及中亚。但超乎预料的是,该国顺利实现了政权平稳过渡。其深层动因就国内而言,反对派实力弱小、大规模利益集团缺失以及卡里莫夫高超的族群派系平衡手段,使得乌兹别克斯坦在政权交接关键时刻难以形成对精英政权博弈构成挑战的政治力量;就外部来看,卡里莫夫奉行不与大国过分亲近的等距离多元平衡外交使得外来力量在政权交接过程中难有机会对乌兹别克斯坦内政进行干涉。乌兹别克斯坦政权平稳过渡从根本上保障了中亚地区持续稳定的政治与安全局面,从而促使地区地缘政治格局发生积极变化,对"一带一路"建设和上合组织深化发展具有深远意义。
For a long time,there has been a discourse of danger and prejudice in the academic circles at home and abroad,especially in western studies,that Uzbekstan in the“post-Karimov”would riot due to the handover of power and it would spread to Central Asia.But what is unexpected is that the country has smoothly achieved a transition of the regime.From domestic perspective,the strength of the opposition is weak,the lack of large-scale interest groups,and Karimov's excellent ethnic and factional balance means make it difficult to form a political force challenging the game of elite regime at the critical moment of transfer of power.On the external front,Karimov pursues an equidistant multi-balanced diplomacy that is not too close to the big powers,making it difficult for foreign forces to interfere in Uzbekistan's internal affairs during the process of political transition.The smooth transition of the Uzbekistan regime has fundamentally safeguarded the sustained and stable political and security situation in Central Asia,and thus promoted positive changes in the regional geopolitical pattern.It has far-reaching significance for the construction of the“Belt and Road”and the deepening of the development of the SCO.
作者
焦一强
崔嘉佳
Jiao Yiqiang;Cui Jiajia
出处
《俄罗斯学刊》
2018年第6期39-52,共14页
Academic Journal of Russian Studies
基金
2013年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目<俄白哈关税同盟与上海合作组织关系研究>(项目编号:13YJAGJW002)
教育部国际合作与交流司国别与区域研究2016-2017年度指向性课题<在中亚推进"一带一路"建设:机遇
挑战与对策>(课题编号:17GBQY059)阶段性成果
