摘要
从2012年起,中国的国际收支双顺差格局已经逐渐消失。在未来,随着经常账户内部货物贸易顺差继续下降以及服务贸易逆差继续上升、人口老龄化以及高杠杆导致国内储蓄投资缺口收窄甚至倒挂,中国的经常账户可能呈现出短期顺逆差交替、中期转为持续逆差的格局;随着中国产业结构的升级转型、金融市场的双向开放以及资本管制程度的下降,中国的非储备性质金融账户可能呈现出余额变动不居的特点;随着人民币汇率市场化程度的提高、经常账户余额最终由正转负、"一带一路"倡议的推进以及藏汇于民格局的形成,中国的外汇储备存量中期内有望逐渐下降。中国国际收支格局变化导致的政策涵义至少包括:第一,无论是人民币汇率的波动性,还是中国国内资产价格的波动性,在未来均会显著增强;第二,中国央行的货币政策操作框架将会发生深刻改变;第三,各种资金频繁的大进大出将会增加中国金融体系面临的内外部冲击;第四,中国投资者对美国国债的投资需求将会发生趋势性下降,中期内美国国债市场存在显著调整的风险。
The twin surpluses in China’s balance of payments have gradually vanished since 2012.As the result of the declining goods trade surplus,the increasing services trade deficit,the shrinking domestic savings-investment gap caused by population aging and the rising household leverage in the coming years,China’s current account may suffer from frequent deficits in the short term and persistent deficits in the mid-term.Along with the upgrading of China’s industry structure,the two-way opening up of its financial markets and loosening capital regulation,China’s non-reserve financial account may swing between surplus and deficit.China’s foreign exchange reserve may decline gradually as the liberalization of renminbi exchange rate regime improves,the current account surplus declines and becomes negative,the Belt and Road Initiative is carried out,and foreign exchange holdings by enterprises and households increase.The evolution of China’s balance of payments has the following policy implications:First,the volatilities of both renminbi exchange rate and domestic asset prices would significantly intensify;second,the operational framework of China's monetary policy would change dramatically;third,the increasing two-way capital flows would amplify the internal and external impacts on China's financial system;last but not least,the US’treasury bond market would face heavy pressure of volatility in the mid-term as a result of the shrinking demand from Chinese investors.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期38-51,4,5,共16页
International Economic Review
