摘要
2008年全球金融危机爆发后,全球经常账户失衡的状况显著缓解,主要经济体的经常账户呈先调整后分化的走势。储蓄投资缺口的调整、实际有效汇率的变动及全球价值链分工的变迁均是全球经常账户再平衡的驱动因素。美国经常账户再平衡的主要驱动因素是家庭部门储蓄率的提升;中国经常账户再平衡的主要驱动因素是危机后的新一轮基建与房地产投资浪潮,以及人民币实际有效汇率的显著升值;日本经常账户的调整主要源于家庭部门和政府部门储蓄率的变动;欧元区整体虽然不存在严重的经常账户失衡,但区内各国之间的失衡依然较为严重。未来全球经常账户再平衡的可持续性将更多地取决于结构性因素的变动。全球主要经济体既应该强化国内的政策调整,也应该加强彼此之间的沟通与协作。
After the 2008 global financial crisis,the global current account imbalance has been significantly reduced,and the current accounts of major economies show the trend of adjustment and differentiation.In conclusion,the adjustment of saving and investment gap,fluctuations in real effective exchange rate and the change of global value chain are all driving forces behind global current account rebalancing.The main driving factor for the US is the increasing household saving rate.The main driving factors of China are the new round of infrastructure and real estate input after crisis and the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate.The current account adjustment of Japan is due to the decline of both government and household saving rates.Though the imbalance of the whole Euro area is not that serious,most single countries remain a state of imbalance obviously.In the future,the sustainability of global current account rebalancing seriously depends on structural factors,and all economies should not only strengthen policy adjustments,but also enhance effective communication and collaboration.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第7期3-14,共12页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"新常态下人民币从外围货币向中心货币升级的路径研究"(项目编号:17AJL016)
