摘要
[目的]在耕地面积有限、城镇化高速发展的背景下,合理评价粮食生产效率,认清粮食生产现状,探索提高粮食生产效率的有效途径。[方法]基于数据包络法(DEA)分别测算了2006—2015年中国31个省(市、自治区)的粮食生产效率,同时借助探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)对其时空格局演变特征进行解析,并通过空间计量模型揭示其驱动机理。[结果]中国粮食生产效率整体偏低,东部沿海地区和西部地区粮食生产效率出现大面积、大幅度下降趋势;粮食生产效率空间集聚效应显著且具有跃迁性,但主要以类型Ⅳ为主,其空间结构具有一定的路径依赖特征;经济增长与粮食生产效率存在正N形的Kuznets曲线,目前大部分地区经济增长的产粮效率呈现边际收益递减特征,未来的粮食生产势必强调其他政策手段的重要性。[结论]中国粮食生产效率空间异质特征显著,应充分发挥有利的“被扩散”的区位优势,制定具有区域联动特点的粮食生产策略。
[Objective]To evaluate the efficiency of grain production,recognize the status of grain production and explore an effective way to improve the efficiency of grain production in the background of limited cultivated land area and rapid urbanization.[Methods]The grain production efficiencies of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2006 to 2015 were measured by data envelopment method(DEA),and the spatial and temporal pattern evolution characteristics were analyzed with the help of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA).The driving mechanism was revealed by the spatial econometric model.[Results]The efficiency of grain production in China was on the low level,the grain production efficiencies of the eastern coastal area and the western region had large scale and substantial decline trend;the spatial agglomeration effect of grain production efficiency was significant and had a leap,but mainly with typeⅣ,its spatial structure had a certain path dependence.There was a positive N shaped Kuznets curve between grain production efficiency and economic growth.At present,the grain production efficiency of most regions is characterized by diminishing marginal income,and the future grain production is bound to emphasize the importance of other policy means.[Conclusion]The spatial heterogeneity of grain production efficiency in China is remarkable.It is necessary to give full play to the favorable regional advantage of“be spread”,and formulate a grain production strategy with regional linkage characteristics.
作者
张凡凡
张启楠
李福夺
陈学军
杨兴洪
ZHANG Fanfan;ZHANG Qinan;LI Fuduo;CHEN Xuejun;YANG Xinghong(School of Management,Guizhou University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;School of Economics,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha,Hu’nan 410004,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Agricultural Zoning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期317-323,共7页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
贵州省教育厅大学生项目“虚拟水战略背景下的我国粮食生产问题及对策”(2018dxs03)
关键词
粮食生产效率
数据包络分析
探索性空间数据分析
空间变异
驱动机理
grain production efficiency
data envelopment analysis
exploratory spatial data analysis
spatial variability
driving mechanism
