摘要
本文从理论和实证两个方面对人口老龄化对我国经济的影响进行说明,理论方面主要从劳动力供给、储蓄率、人力资本三个角度进行说明,在实证方面根据相关数据和联合国关于老龄化社会的界定标准,选取2000-2016年的相关数据进行实证分析,通过ADF检验、最优滞后阶数的确定、AR特征根检验及脉冲响应分析可知,从劳动力供给和储蓄率角度分析,人口老龄化对经济具有抑制作用,从人力资本角度考虑,人口老龄化的加剧有助于我国人力资本的形成,促进经济增长。
This paper illustrates the impact of population aging on China's economy from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The theoretical aspects are mainly illustrated from the perspectives of labor supply,saving rate,and human capital.Based on relevant data and the United Nations on ageing The defining criteria of the socialized society are selected from the data from 2000 to 2016 to conduct empirical analysis.It is known from the ADF test,the determination of the optimal lag order,the AR eigenvalue test,and the impulse response analysis that the population ageing is analyzed from the angle of labor supply and savings rate.The economy has an inhibitory effect on the economy.From the perspective of human capital,the aging of the population will contribute to the formation of China’s human capital and promote economic growth.
出处
《财政科学》
2018年第6期80-88,共9页
Fiscal Science
关键词
人口老龄化
经济增长
脉冲响应分析
Aging Population
Economic Growth
Impulse Response Analysis
