摘要
大连港集装箱按照生成机理不同可以划分为外贸箱、内贸箱、中转箱三类。文中根据不同类别集装箱的生成机理和影响因素,对比历年时间因素与外部因素对集装箱量的影响程度大小,进而建立二项Logistic模型预测未来影响集装箱量变化的主要方面,并选择相应的模型预估未来集装箱箱量。结果证明该组合预测方法能够在大连港集装箱箱量预测中取得较高的预测精度和满意的预测结果。
The containers of Dalian Port can be divided into foreign trade boxes,domestic trade boxes and transit boxes according to the generation mechanism.Based on the forming mechanism and influencing factors of the different types of container,this paper compared the influence degree of the calendar year factors with the external factors on the container volume,and the binomial Logistic model is established to predict the main aspects that affect the container volume change in the future.Furthermore,we choose the appropriate model to estimate the future container volume.The result shows that the combined forecasting method can achieve high forecast accuracy and satisfactory forecast results in the container volume forecast.
作者
王洪璇
陈佳娟
WANG Hong-xuan;CHEN Jia-juan(Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《物流工程与管理》
2018年第7期85-86,54,共3页
Logistics Engineering and Management
关键词
集装箱运输
箱量预测
组合预测
container transport
container volume prediction
combination forecasting
