摘要
随着"一带一路"倡议的实施,中国企业的ODI项目将有全新的"铺展",完善健全的ODI规制体系将是中国企业对外投资的重要指引和安全保障。鉴于此,本文从投资管理和投资促进两个方面梳理"一带一路"ODI规制现状,并在此基础上提出规制评价指标体系和用于评价的EWGRP模型。视角从宏观切入微观,应用二阶段理论,解释中国企业对"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资的决策背景,如何合理地进行路径、时机选择并构建投资规模的决策模型。本文的结论是:中国当前已经建立了一般性的ODI规制,但是,针对"一带一路"建设的ODI规制框架仍待完善;中国企业对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资不仅要考虑企业的优势和发挥优势的程度,还要考虑"两个市场、两个阶段和两种状态",投资方向和规模需要决策者在满足所有必要条件的各方案中选择预期利润最大的方案;在项目取得稳定"存在感"之后,可以考虑"同心多角化"或"链式项目群"方式实现经营范围的扩展,并应用粘滞效应分析确定投资的有利时机;处于"非劣势状态"的中国企业在规制导向与利润求取的双重驱动下,要综合考虑东道国投资收益率、市场与规制等情况,观察收益率增长及其对投资规模的弹性,决定最优投资规模。本文提出政策建议:一是"一带一路"ODI规制框架的制定可以依据一般性ODI规制,结合"一带一路"沿线国家特点;二是增强投资促进措施,简化投资管理程序;三是各级政府要根据国内或域内各行业的一般性经营资源水平出台鼓励投资或合作的政策进行导向;四是处于"劣势状态"的中小企业,如果有特别强大的政策鼓励和"经验获得"需求驱动力,可以构建相应的"劣势企业"决策模型来确定最优投资规模。
With the implementation of the“Belt and Road”strategy,ODI projects of Chinese enterprises will have a brand new“spreading”.Good regulation system of investment will be an important guide and guarantee for the outward investment of Chinese enterprises.Taking into account the important role of investment regulations,this paper reviewed the status quo of ODI regulations of the“Belt and Road”from two aspects as the first-level indicators:investment management and investment promotion.As the second-level indicators,various types of management and promotion measures such as investment approval,foreign exchange management and financial support,social and environmental regulation,asset management,tax incentives,information intelligence services,investment insurance,bilateral investment agreements,multilateral investment treaties were put forward.Then the second-level indicators were refined to select the third-level indicators.Based on these this paper put forward the regulatory evaluation index system.The“Belt and Road”ODI regulation system was considered as a gray system,and the entropy weight method was chosen to calculate the weight of each indicator.Then this paper put forward the Entropy Weight Grey Relation Projection Model(EWGRP Model)to measure the performance of the ODI regulations.Perspective changing from the macro into the micro,with the“Two Stage Theory”,this paper explained the background of Chinese firms decisions of investing in the“Belt and Road”countries,discussed three basic factors of“two markets,two stages and two states”.Best possible decision models of how to select the right path,time and scale for investment were established according to the path,the timing and the scale of investment.The conclusions of this paper are:a)China has established a general ODI regulation,but the ODI regulatory framework for the“Belt and Road”still needed improvement;b)the Chinese firms investing in the“Belt and Road”countries need to consider not only the advantages and their good
作者
刘志鹏
吴彬
LIU Zhi-peng;WU Bin(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100190,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China;School of Business,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan,Shandong,250101,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期36-49,共14页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
