摘要
通过研究南方某市液态乳中黄曲霉毒素M1(aflatoxin M_1,AFM_1)污染水平及量化该市居民AFM_1急性膳食摄入风险,为其液态乳安全生产、消费及质量安全监管提供依据。基于不同品种奶源采集的379份液态乳样品,运用风险评估软件@Risk,构建基于Monte Carlo模拟法的非参数概率评估模型,对AFM1膳食摄入风险进行概率评估。结果表明:采用高效液相色谱法检测的自2015年12月至2016年5月期间采集的379份液态乳样品中,AFM,检出率为19.79%(共75份),污染平均值为0.19μg/kg,最高污染水平为0.62μg/kg。5种不同品种的乳样中AFM_1污染平均值依次为样品D(0.22μg/kg)>样品A(0.21μg/kg)>样品C(0.20μg/kg)>样品E(0.18μg/kg)>样品B(0.13μg/kg)。运用@Risk软件对不同液态乳中AFM_1污染水平检测值进行Pareto、Expon、Laplace等分布拟合,运用赤池信息量准则、贝叶斯信息准则、Chi-Squared、Anderson-Darling和Kolmogorov-Smirnov 5种统计方法进行拟合度检验。结果显示,不同液态乳样品中AFM,污染分布均符合Pareto分布,分别记为Risk Pareto(2.6615,0.029)、Risk Pareto(3.765 2,0.029)、Risk Pareto(3.370 8,0.029)、Risk Pareto(2.854 6,0.029)和Risk Pareto(2.423 5,0.029)。基于Monte Carlo模拟和Bootstrap抽样技术,根据液态乳AFM,污染分布特征,结合相关的暴露参数,用@Risk软件进行模拟,当迭代次数为10000次时,通过饮用不同品种液态乳对AFM,日暴露量的平均值依次为0.000 23、0.000 20、0.000 21、0.000 22、0.000 25μg/(kg·d),第99百分位数的AFM_1暴露量分别为0.000 82、0.000 49、0.000 57、0.000 73、0.000 97μg/(kg·d)。根据暴露评估模型,分别用联合暴露边界比和危害指数表征不同人群通过饮用液态乳暴露AFM_1的致癌和非致癌风险。结果表明不同人群通过饮用不同品种液态乳暴露AFM,的致癌风险值均显著大于100,而当每日耐受摄入量为0.005μg/(kg·d)时,非致癌风险危害指数均大于1,说明针对同一奶源�
In order to detect aflatoxin M1(AFM1)pollution in milk from a certain city in south China and quantify the health risk of AFM1via dietary intake of milk for residents in the city,379fresh milk samples from different cow breeds(A,B,C,D and E)were collected during December2015to May2016.AFM1concentration in milk samples was determined by high performance liquid chromatography and a nonparametric probabilistic evaluation model was fitted to evaluate the health risk associated with dietary intake(exposure)of AFM1using the@Risk software package by Monte Carlo simulation.The results showed that75of these379samples(19.79%)were found positive for AFM1with mean and maximum concentration of0.19and0.62μg/kg,respectively.The mean concentrations of AFM1in different milk sources were in the following descending order:D(0.22μg/kg)>A(0.21μg/kg)>C(0.20μg/kg)>E(0.18μg/kg)>B(0.13μg/kg).The AFM1concentration values for all investigated samples were fitted with the Pareto,Expon and Laplace distribution models,and the goodness of fit of the developed equations were checked by five statistical methods of Akaike’s Information Criterion(AIC),Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC),Chi-Squared test,Anderson-Darling test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.The results indicated that the AFM1pollution in all milk samples conformed to the Pareto distribution with Risk Pareto(2.6615,0.029),(3.7652,0.029),(3.3708,0.029),(2.8546,0.029)and(2.4235,0.029)for A,B,C,D and E,respectively.After10000iterations,the average daily exposure to AFM1from the milk sources A,B,C,D and E were determined respectively as0.00023,0.00020,0.00021,0.00022and0.00025μg/(kg·d)by means of Monte Carlo simulation and the Bootstrap method according to the distribution characteristics of AFM1pollution and the exposure assessment parameters,and the daily exposure to AFM1from these milk sources at the99th percentile were0.00082,0.00049,0.00057,0.00073,0.00097μg/(kg·d),respectively.The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk associated with dietary exposure to AFM1through the co
作者
耿梦梦
徐明芳
王阳
黎明
陈耕南
GENG Mengmeng;XU Mingfang;WANG Yang;LI Ming;CHEN Gengnan(College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China;Research Center of Emergency Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China)
出处
《食品科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期226-233,共8页
Food Science
基金
暨南大学应急管理研究中心重大项目(JD2015008)
广东省科技计划项目(2009B011300003)
