摘要
针对交通系统易于收集到的平均速度,以及排放模型计算所需的运行模式分布参数,建立基于平均速度的运行模式分布模型,并采用遗传算法对模型进行优化.对比所建立模型、MOVES模型中的行驶周期所获取数据与真实数据之间的排放结果差异,发现本模型有82.5%的区间平均排放率预测误差低于MOVES,本模型的最大误差为50.0%,而MOVES模型为304.2%.使用本模型评价了北京市限行前后污染物排放情况,发现限行后二环路高峰小时HC、CO、NO_x总体排放依次减少了9.58%、11.41%、0.49%.与真实值相比,预测值R^2方高于0.700,预测误差大幅度低于MOVES模型预测误差,并实现对交通策略下路网排放的动态评价应用.
In view of the widely available data of the average speed in traffic systems and the parameter of operating modedistribution needed in emission models,a model was developed for generating operating mode distribution based on theaverage speed.Genetic Algorithm was used further for optimizing the model.After a comparison with the real-world data,it was found that the average emission rates estimated based on the proposed model exhibited less errors than thoseestimated based on MOVES in82.5%of the speed bins.The highest error based on the proposed model was50%while304.2%based on MOVES.Finally,the proposed model was used to estimate emissions in Beijing for pre-and after-theimplementation of the vehicle restriction policy.It was found that the2nd Ring Road has experienced a reduction of totalemissions of HC,CO,NOx by9.58%,11.41%,0.49%respectively.Compare with the test values,the R2with the modelwere higher than0.700and errors of the model were much lower than that of the MOVES.Further a modal applicationwas proposed,which can calculate the traffic exhaust emissions of dynamic network.
作者
胥耀方
于雷
宋国华
XU Yao-fang;YU Lei;SONG Guo-hua(School of Traffic and Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University 400074, China;Texas Southern University, Texas 77004, USA;Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第12期3548-3559,共12页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51578052)
重庆市自然科学基金(ctcs2013jcyj A00015)
重庆市教委资助项目(KJ1400328)
关键词
运行模式分布
排放测算
平均速度
遗传算法
operating mode distribution
emission evaluation
average speed
genetic algorithm
