摘要
气候条件不仅对旅游气象资源的空间分布有影响，还会影响旅客对旅游目的地的选择。本文利用厦门近30多年基本气候资料，对温湿指数、风寒指数，着衣指数和人体舒适度指数进行分级赋值，通过FAHP（Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process）确定权重，构建综合气候舒适度模型，评估厦门旅游气候的舒适度及持续时间。为进一步说明气候舒适度对旅游业发展的影响，采用OLS（Ordinary LeastSquare）方法分析气候舒适度与入境旅客月指数的相关性。结果显示：厦门市入境旅游月指数与气候舒适度之间的弹性系数为0.9072，气候舒适度与客流量之间存在着正相关。本项研究不仅分析了厦门市客流量年内变化，也为旅游景点开发以及旅游景区的管理提供科学依据。
The climate condition has an impact not only on the space distribution of tourism meteorology resource, but also on tourist’s choice of destination. This paper, according to basic meteorology data of Xiamen in recent 30 years, has assigned value to temperature-humidity index, wind chill index, clothing index and human comfort index in different grade. It also uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight, building integrated climate comfort to evaluate Xiamen’s tourism climate index and duration. In order to further illustrate the effect of climate comfort degree for the development of tourism, using OLS method to analyze the correlation of monthly index of inbound passengers and climate comfort degree.Results showed: the variation of international tourists in a year was mainly affected by the climate, monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity was 0.7418%. The research provides the scientific evidence for variation of passenger amount of Xiamen within this year, exploration of tourism spots and management of scenic spot.
作者
李长顺
唐德才
刘美
常奋华
Li Changshun;Tang Decai;Liu Mei;Chang Fenhua(Meteorological service center,Weather bureau of Fujian province,Fuzhou 350001,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
关键词
气候舒适度
模糊层次分析
厦门
climate comfort-index
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
Xiamen
