摘要
实证研究没有发现中国货币供给、产出和价格之间的长期协整关系,这说明三者的变化是不规则的,货币供应量缺乏对价格的预测能力,因此,货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介指标存在缺陷。对首个实行通货膨胀目标制的国家新西兰进行的实证研究表明,货币供给、产出和价格之间长期存在较为稳定的关系,长期内产出的变化与价格、货币供给的变化没有必然的联系,产出的变化主要由实际经济因素确定,而无论在短期还是在长期,货币供给的变化都会对价格产生影响。在通货膨胀目标制下,货币政策的执行是理想的。中国有必要借鉴新西兰的经验,实现从货币供应量目标到通货膨胀目标制的转变。
Based on my research,I can't find the long-term trade-off among the money supply,output and inflation in China,which indicates that aiming on the monetary aggregates is poorly assessable to forecast inflation and it is not suitable to be our intermediate target of the monetary policy.However,in New Zealand which is the first Inflation-targeting country,the money supply,output and inflation have the long-term co-integration relationship.This paper analyses the key demand for using inflation targeting as the monetary policy rule which China seems to follow with.
出处
《制度经济学研究》
2006年第2期126-144,共19页
Research on Institutional Economics
