摘要
在回顾已有理论的基础上,本文采用协整、格兰杰因果和脉冲反应分析方法,对我国货币供应量的内生性进行了实证检验。结果显示,货币供给量对于总需求各因素的影响程度并不相同,其中物价和投资是货币供应量的格兰杰原因,且随着时间延续两者冲击对货币供应量的影响逐渐增大;财政支出受货币供给变动的影响较小;出口受货币供给变动的影响最大。由此,我国的货币政策操作应该增强主动性和前瞻性,并更加重视利率、道义劝告等货币量之外的调控手段。
Based the review of existing theories of money supply, the paper adopts the cointegrate test, Granger causality and impulse response test to analyze the endogenesis of money supply in China. The result shows that price and investment is the Granger cause of money supply, and that, with time going by, the effect of these two factors to money supply becomes stronger, which shows that money supply has some endogenesis. The fiscal expenditure has little effect on money supply. The effect of money supply on the...
出处
《上海财经大学学报》
2003年第5期3-10,共8页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
关键词
货币供给内生
协整
格兰杰因果
脉冲反应
money supply endogenesis
cointegrate
Granger causality
impulse response
