摘要
针对水电站经济效益风险 ,采用“分解”分析方法 ,辨识出影响水电站经济效益的风险因素 ,简要分析了各因素的作用机理 ,由此建立了基于最大熵原则的风险分析模型 ,给出了求解方法。并以此模型为基础进行实例研究 ,从而证实该模型的可行性和实用性 。
Concerning with the risk of economic benefit of hydropower station, adopting 'disassembling' analysis method, this paper identifies and briefly analyzes risk factors and their respective function mechanism of economic benefit for hydropower station. Therefore, the Risk Analysis Model basing on the Maximum Entropy Role is established and the solving method is presented. Finally, this model is applied in practical project research, and the feasibility and practicality of this model is proven. All the work can provide the basis for deeper risk analysis and decision-making.
出处
《水电能源科学》
2002年第3期72-74,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目资助 ( 5 0 0 996 2 4 )
关键词
水电站
经济效益
风险分析
最大熵模型
economic benefit for hydropower station
risk factor
risk analysis
maximum entropy model
