摘要
从系统运行的全局出发 ,研究了在三峡水库的运行满足防洪、排沙和航运等综合利用要求的前提下 ,三峡电站在汛期调峰运行的可能性及经济性 ;论证了三峡电站汛期调峰的条件以及给电力系统运行的灵活性和经济性带来的巨大作用 ;提出了三峡电站的装机规模扩大到 2 2 40万kW (即紧接设计的 2 6台机组之后安装预留的 6台机组 )的建议 .三峡工程规模大 ,影响范围广 ,涉及的不确定 (风险 )因素很多 .根据信息熵原理 ,建立了基于最大熵法的经济风险分析模型 ,导出了 6个主要经济指标的最小偏见的概率密度分布函数 ,进行了三峡工程经济风险分析与评价 。
This paper studies the possibility and economy of peak regulation operation during flood period at the Three Gorges reservoir, which will at the same time satisfy the requirements for comprehensive utilization such as flood control, sediment sluicing and navigation, and proposes that if the installed capacity of the Three Gorges Power Plant is to be expanded from the designed 18,200 MW to 22,400 MW, the non regulation operation of the power plant will become regulation operation during flood period, thus increasing greatly the capacity benefits of the power plant, and strengthening the operation flexibility and economy of the power system. Because of the Three Gorges Project′s enormous dimension, wide scope of influence and numerous uncertain (risk) factors involved, this paper presents a model for economy risk analysis on the basis of the maximum entropy in accordance with the information entropy principle, and derives the probabilistic density distribution function of six major economic indexes which are of the minimum prejudice, and based on the distribution function established, and economic risk analysis is made for the Three Gorges Project.
出处
《武汉水利电力大学学报》
EI
CSCD
2000年第1期87-92,共6页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目! (5 95 790 1 2 )
国家教委资助优秀年青教师基金
关键词
容量扩充
风险分析
装机容量
经济合理性
水电站
peak regulation operation
installed capacity expansion
economy risk
risk analysis
maximum entropy
