摘要
本文基于'国际旅游岛'背景下海南省房价不断上涨这一背景,利用海南省各市县2012—2016年的数据,通过构建回归模型研究旅游业发展和预期对海南省房价的影响机制和效应。研究表明:(1)海南省旅游业发展和对旅游业的预期会对平均房价水平产生不同的影响,旅游业发展对房地产市场平均房价水平具有推高效应,而对旅游业的预期会降低平均房价;(2)旅游业发展和预期对房价增长率无显著影响;(3)旅游业发展对当地居民收入的增加效应高于对房价的推高作用,导致房价—收入比的降低,因此海南省旅游业发展对房地产的影响是健康稳定的,其虽然提高了房价,但不会助长房地产泡沫的产生;(4)就不同类型的商品房的房价而言,旅游业的发展显著提高了商业营业用房的价格,降低了商品住宅房的价格,且对商业营业用房价格的影响程度高于商品住宅房,而旅游业发展预期对商业营业用房价格无显著影响,其主要通过降低商品住宅房的价格而对整个房地产市场的平均房价产生抑制效应。
Based on rising house prices in Hainan Province under the background of'International Tourism Island',we comprehensively use the data of Hainan Province from 2012 to 2016 to study the influence mechanism and effect of tourism development and expectation on house prices in Hainan Province by constructing regression model.The results show that:(1)The development of tourism and the expectation in Hainan Province will have different effects on the average housing price level.The development of tourism has an effect on the average housing price in the real estate market,while the expectation of tourism will reduce it.(2)Tourism development and expectations have no significant impact on the growth rate of housing prices.(3)The increase effect of tourism development on local residents’income is higher than that on house price,which leads to the decrease of house price-income ratio.Therefore,the impact of tourism development on real estate in Hainan Province is healthy and stable.Although it increases house price,it will not contribute to the formation of real estate bubble.(4)For different types of housing,the development of tourism has significantly increased the price of commercial housing,reduced the price of departments,and has a greater impact on the price of commercial housing.However,the expectation of tourism industry has no significant impact on the price of housing.It mainly restrains the average price of real estate market by reducing the price of departments.
作者
马成文
方旭
胡星辰
MA Cheng-wen;FANG Xu;HU Xing-chen(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Anhui Bengbu 233030,China;School of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Anhui Bengbu 233030,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Anhui Bengbu 233030,China)
出处
《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》
2019年第5期47-53,共7页
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(11601001)“3-流猜想,Fulkerson-覆盖及相关问题”
安徽省高校省级质量工程项目(2018KFK006)“精品线下开放课程计量经济学”
关键词
旅游业发展
房价
回归模型
房价增长率
房价—收入比
tourism development
housing price
regression model
housing price growth ratio
housing price—income ratio
