摘要
采用2006—2016年房地产年度数据,引入并构建房地产泡沫扩张度测度指标,使用granger因果检验确定房地产投资与住宅,别墅、高档公寓,办公楼,商业营业用房,其他用房5种类型房屋销售价格与新开工面积的关系,构建房地产投资与5种类型房屋仿真模型。结果表明,(1)房地产投资对5种类型房屋销售价格是正向促进作用,对5种类型房屋新开工面积是反向抑制作用。(2)别墅,高档公寓销售价格受房地产投资影响波动大,住宅用房的新开工房屋面积量受滞后二期的房地产投资影响波动过大。因此,政府应该抑制别墅,高档公寓用房的过度投资行为,加大监管、住房保障力度,防止住房用房的炒房行为。
Based on the annual data of real estate from 2006 to 2016,this paper introduces and constructs the measure index of real estate bubble expansion,uses Granger causality test to determine the relationship between real estate investment and housing,villas,high-grade apartments,office buildings,commercial housing,other housing sales price and new construction area,and constructs housing real estate investment and five types of housing simulation models.The results show that:(1)Real estate investment has a positive effect on the sales price of five types of housing,and a negative effect on the new construction area of five types of housing.(2)The sales price of villas and high-grade apartments fluctuates greatly under the influence of real estate investment,and the area of new houses for residential use fluctuates greatly under the influence of the second-phase real estate investment lagging behind.Therefore,the government should curb excessive investment in villas and high-end apartments,strengthen supervision and housing security,and prevent speculation in housing.
作者
况迪
陈涛
KUANG Di;CHEN Tao(Department of Mathematics,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)
出处
《南昌大学学报（理科版）》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第5期483-489,共7页
Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71363043)
关键词
房地产投资
5种类型用房
系统动力学
Real estate investment
five types of housing
system dynamics
