摘要
桂五水库产汇流特性复杂、洪水资料序列较短,常规的基于分布式水文模型的入库洪水预报方法并不适用。提出设计安全值结合水文模型的联合预报法:设计安全值基于初损后损法加单位线汇流,水文模型法基于新安江三水源模型,从防洪安全与兴利角度进行联合预报。在确定两种方法初始参数后,对次洪过程进行模拟,结果表明:两种方法各自模拟精度较高,方法评级分别为乙级、甲级;从防洪安全角度,可选择取两种方法模拟结果的外包线作为入库洪水预报;预报结果偏安全的设计安全值法与预报精度稳定准确的水文模型法联合预报,不仅可应用于桂五水库入库洪水预报,并可为洪水资料序列积累较短的水库入库洪水预报工作提供参考。
Due to complex characteristics of runoff producing and concentration and short flood data sequence,the conventional reservoir flood forecasting scheme based on distributed hydrological model is not applicable in Guiwu Reservoir.This paper puts forward two kinds of schemes： scheme designed safety value based on initial and terminal abstraction along with unit hydrograph and scheme hydrological model based on Xinanjiang Model.After determining the initial parameters of the two schemes,the flood process is simulated,and the results show that the simulation accuracy of the two schemes is comparatively high,and the scheme ratings are Grade B and Grade A.From the view of flood control safety,the envelope curve of two schemes can be selected as the reservoir flood forecasting.Joint Model can not only be applied to Guiwu Reservoir flood forecasting but also provide a reference for reservoir flood forecasting to reservoirs with short flood data sequence.
作者
张顾
王加虎
李丽
刘蓓蓓
郝然
ZHANG Gu, WANG Jia-hu, LI Li, LIU Bei-bei, HAO Ran(College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2018年第11期55-60,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271042)
关键词
入库洪水预报
联合预报
初损后损法
单位线
新安江模型
reservoir flood forecasting
joint Model
initial and terminal abstraction
unit hydrograph
Xinanjiang Model
