摘要
文章利用西藏1990年至2016年城镇和农村居民消费价格指数和居民消费水平指数,借助协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,针对西藏城镇和农村物价变动对居民消费水平的影响展开实证研究。研究表明,西藏城镇和农村的物价变动与居民消费水平均具有稳定的长期均衡关系;城镇当期物价变动对下一期居民消费水平具有引导作用,农村预期的物价变动对当期居民消费水平具有引导作用;物价变动对居民消费的冲击,城镇从第2期开始产生影响并维持相对稳定的水平,农村从第4期开始逐渐衰减;随着时间的推移,城镇物价变动的方差贡献率逐渐上升并维持在25%左右的水平,农村则先升后降并维持在12%左右的水平。最后从强化物价变动的监测和预警、构建高效的物价调控体系、优化社会保障及社会福利措施和引导城乡居民对价格变动的合理预期等四个方面提出了政策建议。
According to the urban and rural residents＇ consumer price index and the consumption level index of Tibet from 1990 to 2016, by applying the method of co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the author has carried out an empirical study on the effect of price fluctuation on the consumption level of urban and rural residents in Tibet. The result shows that the price fluctuation has a stable and long-term equilibrium rela- tionship with the consumption level of the urban and rural residents in Tibet; in urban and rural areas the price fluctuation of the current period has a guiding function on the consumption level of the next period; in countryside the expected price fluctuation has a guiding function on the consumption level of residents in the current period, and so on. In addition, the ar- ticle puts forward some policy suggestion at the four aspects： the monitoring and early warning of price fluctuation, the con- structing of efficient price control system, social security and social welfare measures, guiding the urban and rural resi- dents the rational expectation of price fluctuation.
作者
邵永同
SHAO Yong-tong(School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134)
出处
《西藏大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2018年第3期145-150,186,共7页
Journal of Tibet University
基金
2014年度国家社会科学基金项目"基于粮食安全视角的粮食生产与期货市场对接研究"
项目号:14BJY135
关键词
物价变动
城乡居民
消费水平
price fluctuation
urban and rural residents
consumption level
