摘要
本文以1978-2016年我国钢材产量和GDP数据为基础,通过构建VAR模型,进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,分析结果显示GDP增长对钢材产量具有较大的冲击效应,GDP的增长对钢材产量增长有较大的贡献度。说明现阶段我国GDP增长速度减缓导致市场对钢材的需求减少,相对产能过剩造成钢材产量和价格的下降。据此为钢铁行业在＂十三五＂规划中的调整提出建议。
Based on the steel production and economic growth from 1978 to 2016, through the VAR model to im-pulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that GDP growth has a great im-pact on the steel production, and the growth of GDP has a greater contribution to the growth of steel produc-tion. It shows that the slow growth of GDP leads to the decrease of market steel demand and the decrease of steel output and price due to relative excess capacity. Put forward proposals in the thirteenth Five-Year Plan adjustment of iron and steel industry.
作者
孙万鑫
薛镇
SUN Wan-xin;XUE Zhen(School of Management,China University of Mining ＆ Technology（Beijing）,10083 Beijing China)
出处
《特区经济》
2018年第9期118-120,共3页
Special Zone Economy
