摘要
第三产业产值是监测国民经济运行情况的重要指标,准确预测第三产业产值对政府进行宏观调控意义重大.选用1978—2016年福建省第三产业产值数据为原始数据序列,构建了预测模型ARIMA(1,2,2).该模型对2012—2016年福建省第三产业产值的预测精度均在97%以上,具有良好的预测效果.
The output value of the terliacy induswy is an important indicator for monitoring the status ofthe national economy. Accurate prediction for the output value of the terliacy induswy is of great signifi-cance to the government＇s macroeconomic regulation and control. In this paper, the output data of theterliacy induswy in Fujian Province fi＇om 1978 to 2016 is selected as the original data sequence, andthe prediction model ARIMA（1,2,2） is constructed. The model has a prediction accuracy of over 97%on the output value of the terliacy induswy in Fujian Province from 2012 to 2016, and has a good pre-dictive effect.
作者
刘伟霞
LIU Weixia(Department of Straits,Minjiang University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350108,China)
出处
《闽江学院学报》
2018年第5期22-28,共7页
Journal of Minjiang University
基金
国家职业教育研究院福建分院研究项目(GZM14005)
