摘要
以石羊河流域上游山区和中下游绿洲区为研究区,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型对研究区的NPP进行估算,通过Sen斜率的方法对NPP变化的时空特征进行分析,基于敏感性分析对NPP的主要气候影响因子对NPP的贡献程度进行了估算;通过设定不同的气候情景,分析各气候情景下NPP的响应特征,在此基础上对未来NPP的变化进行了预测。结果表明:1981—2015年,研究区气候趋向"暖湿化",NPP在"暖湿化"的趋势下表现为增加; NPP自上游至下游呈增加趋势,增减趋势空间分异不显著,变化幅度空间异质性较强; NPP主要受降水、相对湿度及净辐射的影响;"暖湿型"气候条件对植被生长和干物质的积累最有利,"冷干型"气候最不利于植被干物质的积累,相对于气温而言,降水的影响程度更大,降水决定NPP的增减,气温影响NPP的变化幅度;石羊河流域NPP未来的变化以增加为主,到2050年NPP将增加5.71%~7.83%。
Net primary productivity（ NPP） of the mountainous area in upper reaches and oasis areas in middle and lower reaches of Shiyang River basin was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model. The spatial and temporal dynamics of NPP were analyzed by Sen＇s slope method. Based on the sensitivity analysis,the contributions of main climate factors to NPP were estimated. The response of NPP to climate change was analyzed by setting four different climate scenarios. Subsequently,the changes of NPP in future were predicted. The results showed that climate had a tendency to be warm and wet from 1981 to 2015,with increasing NPP in the study area. The spatial heterogeneity of change trend of NPP was not significant,but the spatial heterogeneity of change magnitude was strong,with NPP increasing from the upper reaches to the lower reaches. NPP was mainly affected by precipitation,relative humidity,and net radiation. The＂warm and wet＂climate was beneficial to the vegetation growth,while the＂cold and dry＂climate was unfavorable to the vegetation growth. The changes in NPP depend on precipitation,with temperature affecting the amplitude of such changes. The NPP in Shiyang River basin is predicted to increase by 5.71%-7.83% in 2050.
作者
张雪蕾
王义成
肖伟华
杨瑞祥
王燕
朱丽姗
ZHANG Xue-lei;WANG Yi-cheng;XIAO Wei-hua;YANG Rui-xiang;WANG Yan;ZHU Li-shan(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China;College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China）.)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第10期3110-3118,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
"十三五"国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601500)
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404410)资助
