摘要
作为港口码头货物的主要陆上运输工具和能源消耗设备,集装箱卡车是港口区域大气环境污染的主要来源之一。从港口大气环境安全出发,分析环保部公布排放因子的局限性,综合考虑集装箱卡车保有量、发动机状态、运行工况、燃料使用和道路条件等复杂因素,通过功率法确定集装箱卡车尾气中CO,SO2和NO2的平均排放因子。以长江某内河港口为案例计算得到该地区2016年全年各类污染的总排放量,并利用灰色预测估计未来10年该港区集装箱吞吐量的变化,与实际数据对比发现,模型精度达到了95%以上,预测结果良好。借助高斯模型建立港区大气污染物风险扩散模型并计算未来几年集装箱卡车尾气排放对周围居民的影响。结果表明,2016年该地区4月日平均CO的浓度达到250ug/m3;SO2浓度为57ug/m3;NO2浓度为1 100ug/m3。大气污染排放中NO2占比最大,分担率超过80%。各类尾气污染物24h平均浓度已远超国家标准,港口区域集卡尾气污染对港口周边工作人员健康和港口所在城市大气环境安全威胁极大。
As major energy consumption and land transport for cargos at port terminals,container trucks are a major source of air pollution in port areas.This study analyses current limitations of emission factors announced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China,considering effects of multiple factors including number of container trucks,operating conditions,fuel usage,and road conditions.The average emission factors of CO,SO2,and NO2 in tail gases of container trucks are calculated by using apower analysis method.A typical river port at Yangtze River is taken as a case study,and the total emissions of all kinds of pollution in this region in the year 2016 are calculated.A grey prediction model is used to estimate the throughput change of containers in the port area in the next decade.Compared with actual data,the precision of this model is more than 95%,and its forecast results are practical significant.A Gaussian model is used to evaluate the risks to surrounding residents caused by dispersion of air pollutants of container trucks in the port areas.The results show that in April 2016,the average concentration of CO is 250 ug/m3,SO2 is 57 ug/m3,and NO2 is1 100 ug/m3.NO2 emissions occupy the largest proportion of air pollution,which is more than 80%.The results show that the exhaust pollutants exceed the national standard during aperiod of 24 h.It is a significant threat to the health of surrounding residents and air environment of the city.
作者
武伟佳
李延文
马晓凤
钟鸣
WU Weijia;LI Yanwen;MA Xiaofeng;ZHONG Ming(Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan 430063,china;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan University of technology Wuhan 430063,china;Engineering Research Center for Transportation Safety of Ministry of Education,Wuhan University of technology Wuhan 430063,china;Changjiang River Waterway Traffic Monitoring and Response Center,Wuhan 430000,china)
出处
《交通信息与安全》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期113-119,132,共8页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家自然科学基金(51678461)资助
关键词
港口规划
集装箱卡车
污染扩散
高斯模型
灰色预测
port planning
container truck
pollution diffusion
Gaussian model
grey model
