摘要
文章以我国渔业产业结构为研究对象,运用回归分析法和成分数据预测模型,对我国渔业产业结构优化进行实证分析。系统分析了渔业产业结构变动对渔业经济增长的贡献度,并预测了我国渔业发展的方向。研究表明:渔业一、二、三产业产值每增长1%,分别会带动0.17%、0.43%、0.35%的总产值增长率,并且通过预测知,我国渔业二三产业的比重与第一产业的比重不断持平,二三产业所占比重不断上升。最后针对实证分析结果提出应注重渔业产业专业化分工,延伸产业链、积极发展第三产业,推动休闲渔业的发展、三大产业协调融合发展等建议。
This paper takes the structure of fishery industry as the research object, and applies regression analysis method and component data forecasting model to optimize the structure of fishery industry in china. The research systematically analyzes the contribution of fishery industry structure change to the economic growth and predicts the direction of fishery development in China. The results show that the growth rate of the output value increases 0.17%, 0.43% and 0.35% when the output of the first, second and third industries increases by 1%, and by the prediction, The proportion of the fishery industry has been flat and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries continue to rise. Finally, according to the results of the empirical analysis, the author puts forward some suggestions, such as we should pay attention to the specialization of fishery industry, extend the industrial chain, actively develop the third industry, promote the development of leisure fisheries,and coordinate the development of the three industries.
作者
平瑛
赵玲蓉
PING Ying;ZHAO Ling-rong(College of Ocean University of Shanghai,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2018年第4期64-69,共6页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
关键词
渔业产业结构
经济增长
回归模型
成分数据预测模型
对策建议
fishery industry structure
economic growth
regression model
component dataforecasting model
suggestion
