摘要
为量化铁路接发列车安全因素风险,结合现场专家意见全面分析影响接发列车安全作业的安全风险因素,构建了因果关系网络,采用模糊数学计算因素节点先验发生概率,以贝叶斯条件概率为趋动机制,建立了事故因素网络动态演化模型,给出了求解算法,计算机模拟实验结果表明:实验次数达到1 000 000次时,各安全因素对事故发生概率都趋于稳定,但可操控性规章制度不健全和设备老化为最重要安全因素,安全因素概率对最终事故发生概率影响存在一个突变点。
The safety risk factors of train receiving-departure were completely analyzed with the suggestions of scene experts to quantify safety risk of railway train receiving-departure. The causality network was constructed, and the probability of a priori occurrence of the node was calculated by fuzzy mathematics. The dynamic evolution model of the accident factor network was established by using the Bayesian conditional probability as the dynamic mechanism, and the solution algorithm was given. The computer simulation results show that the probability of all factors leading to accident is tending to be stable as the number of experiments reached 1 000 000. Incomplete regulatory rules and the aging of equipment are the two most important safety factors. There is a mutated point in the influence of safety factors on the probability of the final accident.
作者
徐敏
Xu Min(Department of Transport and Trade,Chongqing Vocational College of Public Transportation,Chongqing 402247,China)
出处
《石家庄铁道大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第3期86-91,110,共7页
Journal of Shijiazhuang Tiedao University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
接发列车安全
安全风险
模糊集
贝叶斯网络
train receiving-departure
safety risk
Fuzzy Set
Bayesian network
