摘要
通过对三水源新安江水文模型参数分析,针对模型中的自由水蓄水容量、壤中流消退系数、地下水消退系数和河网消退系数4个敏感参数,以淮河息县流域为例,应用基于Bayesian理论的GLUE方法对参数进行不确定性分析。结果表明,GLUE方法以确定性系数0.85为临界似然判据,得到90%置信区间的洪水过程概率分布,能够很好地模拟实况流量过程。
In view of the parameter analysis of Xin＇anjiang model, the uncertainties of sensitive parameters, including free water storage capacity, recession constant of lower interflow storage, recession constant of groundwater storage and recession constant of channel network storage, are analyzed by GLUE method with taking Xixian Basin as test case in Huaihe River. The results show that the probability of flood hydrograph at 90% confidence interval obtained by GLUE method with a deterministic coefficient of 0. 85 can well simulate actual flow process.
作者
王莉莉
包红军
李致家
WANG Lili1, BAO Hongjun1, LI Zhijia2(1. National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2. College of Hydrology and Water Recourses, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China)
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2018年第9期12-15,共4页
Water Power
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402702)
国家自然科学基金项目(51509043
41775111)
国家气象中心水文气象预报团队项目共同资助项目
