摘要
本文运用综合门槛效应模型实证评估主要经济体的外汇市场开放初始条件及其对外汇市场开放的综合效益。运用门限回归法构建主要经济体外汇市场开放的经济增长与经济危机效应模型,得出主要经济体初始条件的标准区间。从金融发展、制度质量、国际贸易开放和宏观经济政策四类条件因素中选择7个常用的经济开放初始条件指标,运用非线性多门槛面板模型,通过外汇市场开放的经济增长和货币危机模型,考察初始条件对开放综合效益的影响,包括正面的经济增长效应和负面的经济金融危机效应。实证得出,金融发展、制度质量等7个门槛变量中,除外汇储备占GDP比重是单门槛模型,其他开放初始条件对经济增长的作用均呈现双门槛特征,在各因素满足一定门槛条件时,对开放后的经济增长均具有强促进效应,以上7个初始条件均是外汇市场开放的关键要素,其协同作用将会进一步推动一国经济向好发展。
The research evaluate the initial conditions of the opening of foreign exchange market in major economies and their comprehensive benefit to the opening of the foreign exchange market by using the comprehensive threshold effect model. According to constructing the economic growth and economic crisis effect model of foreign exchange market in major economies by using the threshold regression method, and obtaining the standard range of initial conditions of major economies. From the financial development and institutional quality, international trade, opening up and in the condition of four types of macroeconomic policy factors choosing initial conditions to open seven common economic indicators, using nonlinear threshold panel model, through the foreign exchange market open economy growth and currency crisis model, studying the effect of initial conditions for open comprehensive benefit, which open the comprehensive effect of positive economic growth effect and negative effect of economic and financial crisis. The empirical results show that in the seven threshold variables, such as financial development and institutional quality, the foreign exchange reserves are excluded.
作者
李学武
Li Xuewu(Urumqi Central Sub-branch,the People＇s Bank of Chin)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2018年第4期22-37,共16页
Financial Development Review
关键词
外汇市场开放
初始条件评估
综合经济效应
Opening of Foreign Exchange Market
Initial Condition Assessment
Comprehensive Economic Effect
