摘要
针对高校仪器设备维护经费预算决策难的问题,提出了一种基于改进灰色GM(1,1)模型的高校仪器设备维护费用预测方法。首先分析灰色GM(1,1)模型的数据预测过程,构建基于初始数列和背景改进的新GM(1,1)预测模型;然后以高校某型加工中心前五年实际维护经费为基础,利用所建模型对其维护费用进行预测,获得了后五年维护费用及变化趋势。结果表明,该模型能根据小样本原数据进行趋势预测,比较准确地反映真实费用,可为仪器设备维护保养经费决策提供参考借鉴依据。
In order to solve the problem of difficult decision of equipment maintenance budget in colleges and universities,a new method based on improved grey GM（1,1） model is proposed.Firstly,the data prediction process of grey GM（1,1） model is analyzed,and a new GM（1,1） prediction model based on the initial sequence and background improvement is constructed.Then,based on the actual maintenance cost of a certain type of machining center in a university during the past five years,the maintenance cost is predicted with the built model,and the maintenance cost and change trend in the next five years are obtained.The results show that the model is able to predict the maintenance cost and change trend by the small samples data and has high prediction accuracy.It can provide reference for instruments and equipment maintenance cost decision.
作者
梁小华
LIANG Xiao-hua(Financial Management Department,Shaanxi University of Technolog)
出处
《陕西理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第4期88-92,共5页
Journal of Shaanxi University of Technology:Natural Science Edition
基金
陕西省教育财会研究计划项目(18JC008)
关键词
改进GM(1
1)模型
仪器设备
维护费用
预测
improved GM（1
1） model
instruments and equipment
maintenance cost
predic-tion
