摘要
华东地区内部经济发展水平与方式差异较大,随着土地资源日益紧缺,揭示其城镇土地扩张影响因素的时空异质性有重要意义。因此,本文采用地理加权回归模型(GWR)研究2002—2015年华东地区城镇土地扩张机制,为制定差别化城镇土地扩张调控政策提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)华东地区城镇土地数量有明显局部空间集聚性,主要是向低—低区和高—高区集聚,且空间集聚程度在逐年提升;(2)人口数量、产业结构GDP、消费品零售这4个解释变量对华东地区城镇土地扩张的影响差异明显:赣南及闽南地区的人口和三产比重对城镇土地正向拉动作用最强;GDP与消费品零售拉动重心位于山东、安徽省与苏北地区;长三角地区产业结构调整有效缓解城镇土地扩张;上海与苏南地区GDP与城镇土地扩张二者基本脱钩;人口对城镇土地扩张推动作用在逐年减弱,而GDP拉动作用先变强后变弱。
The land resources are becoming more and more scarce in East China, where the level and the way of economic development are quite different among internal region. So it is important to reveal the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the factors influencing the urban land expansion. Geographically weighted regression （GWR） model was employed in this paper to study the mechanism of urban land expansion in East China during 2002-2015 so as to provide a scientific basis for making differential policy among different regions on controlling urban land expansion. The results indicated that： （1）The quantity of urban land showed obvious spatial agglomeration especially low-low and high- high agglomeration in local East China, and the degree of which was increasing year by year.; （2）The impact of four variables on urban land expansion, including population, GDP, industrial structure and retail sales, obviously showed regional difference. The population and industrial structure in southern Jiangxi and Fujian had the strongest positive effect on urban land; The influencing gravity of GDP and retail sales tied in Shandong, Anhui province and northern Jiangsu; Yangtze river delta effectively alleviated urban land expansion by industrial structure adjustment; The GDP of Shanghai and southern Jiangsu decoupled from the urban land expansion; The influence of population on urban land expansion diminished every year, while the force of GDP which promote land expansion went from strong to weak.
作者
李思远
李鑫
LI Si-yuan;LI Xin(School of Geography,Geomatics ＆ Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)
出处
《广东土地科学》
2018年第2期12-20,共9页
Guangdong Land Science
基金
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX18_2071)
关键词
GWR模型
城镇土地扩张
影响因素
时空异质性
华东地区
GWR model
urban land expansion
driving forces
spatio-temporal heterogeneity
East China.
