摘要
概率方法是客观全面评估大规模可再生能源接入条件下电力系统充裕性的有效手段。2017年,欧洲输电运营商联盟（ENTSO-E）发布了首份中期充裕性预测报告（MAF）,首次在泛欧区域内开展概率充裕性评估应用,是将概率性评估方法正式纳入电网规划运行常规工作的典型案例,具有重要的标志性意义和借鉴意义。分析总结了泛欧电力系统概率充裕性评估的驱动力,从评估指标、数据建模和仿真方法等方面介绍了泛欧电力系统概率充裕性评估的特点,对其实际应用案例评估结果进行了分析,并结合我国现状,从建立充裕性评估的标准、评价指标和数据模型等方面提出了建议,希望对我国电力系统可靠运行和促进新能源消纳具有借鉴意义。
Probabilistic methodology is useful to assess adequacy of power systems integrated with large scale renewable energy. European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity（ENTSO-E） published the Mid-term Adequacy Forecast（MAF） report for the first time in 2017, presenting the first Pan-European probabilistic adequacy assessment. This could be taken as an exemplary case to implement probabilistic methodology in power system planning and operation, very symbolic and offering valuable experiences. This paper analyzed the driving force of the Pan-European probabilistic adequacy assessment, and introduced its features from aspects of indices, models, simulation method and so on. Then, the results of typical study cases were interpreted. Finally, according to current situation in China, suggestions of establishing adequacy assessment standard, index criteria, database and models were proposed to support secure operation of power system and promote renewable energy accommodation.
作者
何剑
HE Jian(China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China)
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第8期2681-2686,共6页
Power System Technology
