摘要
运用偏离-份额分析法,以全国林业为参照,对国有林区经济发展过程及产业结构进行实证分析得到:随着国有林区的改革和天保工程的实施以来,国有林区三次产业结构在不断进行调整,总体趋于合理方向转变;国有林区三次产业在增长率、结构上均高于全国平均水平,但是竞争力较弱,需要采取一定的措施提高竞争力水平;第一、第三产业受到的由木材大量调减所带来的影响较小,通过发展替代产业一定程度上缓解了经济增长压力,而主要以木材加工为主的第二产业受到了较大影响,需要通过产业的转型升级带动经济的增长。针对研究结论,提出国有林区产业结构优化应加大扶持以森林生态旅游服务业为主的第三产业,维持第一产业的稳定增长,推动第二产业的产业转型升级,不断提升三大产业竞争力,支持林区多种经营共同发展。
(1)Background——Since the implementation of the natural forest protection project,taking the stateowned forestry areas as comprehensive stop-cutting pilots,a series of policy implementation led to sharp drop in timber production. Primary industry,which is dominated by timber and wood industry as raw material,is seriously affected by the forestry industry. The state-owned forest areas must cultivate a new non-wood substitute industry as soon as possible. By adjusting the industrial structure,the industrial structure of the forest areas under the new situation should be established to ensure the economic and social stability and sustainable development of the forest areas.(2)Methods——In this paper,the economic development and industrial structure of state-owned forests are analyzed by taking the shift-share method. According to the calculation period required by SSM,it is divided into two periods of 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. Relevant statistical indicators required in the study mainly include the output value of tertiary industries and the total output value of state forestry in each year in the stateowned forest areas.(3)Results——The tertiary industries as a whole have enjoyed sound development,its output value has increased at an average annual rate of 18%. The output value of the primary industry accounts for the large share of GDP but its growth is slow,while that of the tertiary industry is the smallest and growing rapidly. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry first decreased and then increased,but the proportion did not exceed that of the primary industry yet. According to the result of SSM model,in three industries between 2005 and 2014,Pj> 0,Dj< 0. Meanwhile,Nj> 0. Among them,the average value of Njin the secondary industry is the largest,seven times than the tertiary industry. However,the value of Njof the tertiary industry increased rapidly,and it is tripled between 2010 to 2014 compared with the first period( 2005-2009). Finally,the value of L,W,U all over one in the thr
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2018年第2期1-6,共6页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY032)
关键词
偏离-份额分析
国有林区
产业结构
the state-owned forest areas
industrial structure
economic transition
shift share method
